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Friday, 20 November 2009

The problems of the dollar - this is good news for the markets in Europe

Almost all predicted the dollar fall. He has even fewer friends than a passenger aircraft, which during the flight is suspected sick swine flu.

Investor and owner of billions of dollars in George Soros (George Soros) said that this situation creates a "dangerous instability. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kan (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), indicates the appearance of a new global world's dominant currency in the decade.

The reasons are simple: the U.S. economy is in bad shape, the Fed prints money wildly, the budget deficit out of control.

It is hard to believe that in five years the dollar will have the same dominant role he had on global markets after World War II.

The depreciation of the dollar in Europe is often seen as a threat. In fact, all exactly the opposite: the end of the dollar's dominance will increase the importance of the European economy.

Evidence of problems of the dollar, we can see everywhere. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to mutter about the need to abandon the dollar in transactions with the oil and switch to one or more other currencies. This may not happen immediately, but it would be naive to believe that this will not happen in principle.

Central banks are beginning to revise their views on how much of their stocks to keep the dollar, particularly because the Fed does not stop the printing press. For example, India, has just bought gold at $ 6.7 billion from the IMF to diversify their reserves. Expect many such transitions, especially from new emerging economies in the coming years.

The end of
Objective debate about the end of the dollar's dominance has not yet happened. After WWII the U.S. became a strong economy. Now they - one of several powerful economic blocs. There is no reason for the U.S. to occupy a special position.

An interesting question is what the consequences. The gradual decline of the dollar - another source of instability in the world, in which it and so abound. The depreciation of the dollar in Europe and the rest of the world - is an opportunity to strengthen its own economy.

There are three reasons for this.

First, the primacy of the dollar allowed the U.S. to cope with a much larger trade deficit than any other country could afford, not leading to the collapse of its currency. It was a kind of tax that was levied with the rest of the world and allowed the U.S. to consume more and save less than they should, at a time when other countries were forced to save more and consume less.

"Tax" dollar
Because Europe is richer in other countries, this tax is mostly paid by Europeans. Any tax cut stimulates the economy, so the end of the tax dollar will do the same for Europe.

Secondly, the decline of the dollar will inevitably stimulate the global trading volatility, since only the special status of the dollar makes a huge U.S. trade deficit is acceptable. This should reduce the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and China. It will also reduce a massive trade surplus in Germany, as the strong euro complicates the sale of goods abroad. Even with the rapid growth of China, Germany remained the largest exporter of goods in the world in 2008. If China will assume this role in the near future, Germany could begin to consume and import more, which should benefit the whole of Europe.

Finally, we do not know what will replace the dollar. "Gold bugs" (supporters of preserving the functions of monetary gold) insist on their candidate, and maybe they will win. But most likely it will be the basket of currencies. One of them will be the Euro. The euro zone is currently the only strong economy, with the right amount of liquidity to meet the dollar.

Free Loans
For that to be a reserve currency to pay the price. Your Bank should worry about the consequences of its policies in the context of the whole world, not just the domestic economy. Of course, there are advantages. In fact: the rest of the world gives you an interest-free loan. And your currency is stronger than might.

With its aging population, Europe is the greater part of the next 30 years will live on their capital. With so many retirees, the region will be required to spend more than it saves. A stronger euro makes imports cheaper than those things that work force has ceased to produce.

Most of us do not like change, and people have a tendency to hold on to something with which they are familiar much longer than it was viable. But the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, is complete. And although Europe has to fear, there are also things which you can enjoy.

Lynn, Bloomberg
November 18

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