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Tuesday, 3 February 2009

Cloud Of The Doubt

In this paper we consider one of the situations in which to enter the market is not recommended. I called this time «a cloud of doubt». Typically, the cloud is formed by passing the important points of resistance / support or clash of bulls and bears. Or when is not clear where to move the market. Let's try together to understand this situation and not get «elk». Let one of the few such situations. And a recent review of Perforation resistance 1.2940. I explain how I found this resistance, as many traders look for the data in different projections, etc., at a time when everyone can easily find this level, I even have to say - is required to be able to find. Well move on to the case.

Weekly schedule:

We see from the left point, the box in the red circle, it is just above the maxima will be located an emotional level of resistance to 10P smaller, more does not matter, microscopic precision is not necessary. So we found our resistance.

The second circle is our place for research. Many will say to say that for easy stories to tell and analyze the past already. Say - «show better, where will tomorrow evra?». I have an answer to this question. I say - I do not know. I always go for the price, but do not predict it, where it will be tomorrow, in five minutes, after a week or a year.

So, continue. Switching to a shorter period - for full-time schedule.

For further analysis we will use the 5 tools. SMA (21), SMA (180), Stohastic (7,10,3), Parabolic SAR and MACD Siberian standard settings.

Daily schedule:

Consider the daily schedule.

On the day seeing all the signs of a turn upward trend. MACD gave a signal to sell it proves that the mood of the crowd at the station, Stochastics also had confirmation - leave the area perekuplennosti thereby signaling the beginning of sales.

Got to two false signals from different indicators. What conclusion?

Close to such levels do not trust these indicators? - Of course not.

Parabolika, short and long, medium, showed a steady upward trend.

There was a breakthrough because even a short sliding.

Especially at this site parabolika was under the protection, ie for short-medium. And it said that the trend is protected. Why do so many traders selling at this level, for me personally - it is not clear.

I think that at this level of sales could perform only after a brief breakdown rolling and changing rate parabolika. It thus would be a confirmation signal from the indicators on early sales. This one could finish the talk, laugh, and show the finger at those who have had the imprudence to sell here. But the depth and go on. If you carefully consider the candles that surrounded by a red circle, you will find a variety of false turning combinations.

That is what I call «The big cloud of doubt». Then explain why so called it.

Four schedule

Consider now the site for 4ch and 1h schedules.

At 4ch graphics on this site has been noticed several bear MACD-divergence, any MACD-Histogram hill after a large, bear seen as a signal for the sales, Stochastics had confirmation of these signals, a total of about 3 diversification, I would like to note that srabotki enough good, profit can be caught with the right approach, well now we do not know. To explain this behavior of the crowd easily. At these sites the crowd divided into two categories: those who work on the samples, and those of a breakthrough. Bears are looking for a signal to any sale of bulls and of the signals to buy. When leaving the price for resistance, traders, playing to return to the channel, considering diversification MASD and Stochastics signal the beginning of sales, and drive the price to have the so-called support. There they are happy to meet with the bulls to perceive touch on the support price as a signal to buy - on the rebound. "

That's the beginning and the chaos of battle between the bulls and bears. This is again - "a cloud of doubt."

At the station an active mood, a lot of sales and a lot of shopping. Here every doubt, think how not to miss a turn and a more advantageous position to enter, hence the name.

So when will we enter into the market? - You ask.

There are two options.

Option 1:

You can settle with the bear diversification MACD (I noted them with red circles - this is a confirmation 4ch divergence, and more accurate input.), So you go along with the bears, who think that this is a false break. But because we dodge the crowds, and we will go in a collision with the bulls. (The points of collision with the bulls, it signals that the bulls take to buy, then we will consider)

2.Mozhete enter the tangency points of the long moving average (they are marked by green circles), is a foot lower than the resistance.

The points of collision bears and bulls, and there - "the clouds of doubt."

Time schedule:

During the symposium leave. See you soon.
Tolstykh profit and wicked moose

Author: Smagin YA aka URAN.

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