RBS: the problems of Eastern Europe - a negative factor for the euro

Dealers noted that the volume of trades in the last couple of hours has significantly decreased, and among market participants there is no particular desire to take aggressive actions, given the decline in liquidity, the proximity of the output and the lack of data that could give rise to the direction of motion. Euro / dollar is still trading in a fairly narrow range, and currently holds about $ 1.4007, continuing to feel the presence of interest in buying in the area of $ 1.3980. Nevertheless, the overall mood is moderately negative, and currency strategists Royal Bank of Scotland believes that there are objective reasons for its further deterioration in the foreseeable future. Investors have recently become somewhat skeptical about the "green sprout" in the economy, and the RBS recommend to pay attention to the fact that the worsening situation in Europe may well become the catalyst for the next wave of reduction of appetite for risk. British bank's strategists believed that Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Ukraine, as well as four more countries in Eastern Europe (Russia in the list are not included), may declare a default on its obligations, or they may need IMF assistance, but for Latvia and Ukraine These risks are highest. Realization of this scenario would be very unpleasant event for the single currency, and currency strategists RBS has maintained a forecast for the euro / dollar at the end of the third quarter at $ 1.32.

Morgan Stanley: the ruble will not be long

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the strengthening of the ruble is unlikely to continue, despite the rise in oil prices, given the likelihood of interference with the Central Bank of Russia to protect its exporters. During the period from August 2009 to January 2010, Russia has spent more than a third of its foreign reserves to prevent a sharp depreciation of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. Over the past five months, the Russian ruble rose by 16% against the backdrop of rising oil prices (since 20 January, the price of oil rose more than twice). However, Morgan Stanley believes that even with the increase in oil prices, fragile position of many exporters and the weak state of the state budget are forced to carefully evaluate the likelihood of further growth of the ruble. The Bank believes that in order to prevent the strengthening of the national currency Centrobank "inevitably" will resort to the intervention. Bank Morgan Stanley strategists believe that in the second half of this year, Bank of Russia will allow ruble depreciated by 3.4% to 32.3 rubles to the dollar, given that low interest rates have a higher priority compared to a strong national currency. The bank also expects that the reduction of inflation to the first quarter of 2010 the refinancing rate in Russia will be reduced to 9%. The dollar / ruble currently holds about 31.25, when it should be noted that in the last few days has consistently supported a pair of 200-day moving average around 31.00.

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ expects growth in the Canadian dollar against the yen

Currency strategists Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ believes that the Canadian dollar could rise against the Japanese yen after the volatility between the two currencies has fallen to its lowest level since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Implicit one-volatility yesterday reached a minimum level from 17 September last year (two days after the company Lehman Brothers announced bankruptcy). Over the past three months, the Canadian currency strengthened to 1.4% against the yen on a background of reducing volatility and the growth of global equity MSCI World Index by 11 percent, contributing to increased demand for more profitable assets. In a couple of Canada / yen decline in volatility was the most significant. Therefore, currency strategists Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believes the best buy the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. Reducing the volatility of the yen has a close correlation with the trade-weighted depreciation of the yen.

BMO Capital Markets: Canadian Dollar - decreased in June and growth in the quarter

Canadian currency in June fell by 6.2% compared with 9 percent growth the previous month. BMO Capital Markets say that over the past month, the Canadian dollar showed a significant weakening, not only among the major currencies - Canada's currency has declined more than the Iranian Rial and the Icelandic Krona. Yet in the second quarter of the Canadian dollar rose 8.4% - this is one of the most significant quarterly achievements in the history of observations, even at extremely low levels in June. In fact, it is said in the BMO Capital Markets, only in the second quarter of 2003, the Canadian dollar showed a greater increase (8.9%).

Data on the NFP was forced to ponder the market. The U.S. no longer sells

Since the publication of disappointing data on employment in the United States, moreover, were worse than expectations, the dollar and the yen strengthened across the spectrum of the market. Do not add optimism dollar sellers and the President of the ECB statement that "the stage of recovery" the region may begin only in mid-2010. Additional stimulus to the strengthening U.S. currency, China has become a statement that the country would like to see the dollar is stable and does not intend to raise the subject of a new reserve currency in the G-8 summit in Italy. "After this statistical situation is in favor of the dollar", - said Benedict Germany, currency strategist at UBS AG Stamford. - "Investors wake up, wipe your eyes and say:" It's summer, and the world situation has not improved. " Such opinion and Lauren Rosboro, currency strategist Westpac Banking Corp in London: "By the end of September we expect to reduce the euro to $ 1.33, because economic data probably will continue to indicate that the recovery of world economy will be weaker than many people expected. We all know that the euro will continue to cheapen. Speeches rapidly, and, moreover, a significant restoration is not. "