01:30
Forex Arena
In late 2001, the magazine «Sun» has published an interview with Joe DiNapoli - one of the most popular American traders [1]. In March 2002, DiNapoli, as well as two other well-known financial guru - Borselino Lewis and Larry Williams, came to Moscow where he participated in the exhibition-conference «Internet Trading. Ekspo2002 »[2]. Many of our readers have been very happy to personally speak with «living legends» financial world, but expressed regret that not all able to talk with them. Journal «Sun» begins a series of regular publications on the world-renowned trader. The first issue to our readers are invited to an interview with John Bollindzherom.
«Currency speculator»:
Hello, Mr. Bollindzher. Our first question: readers interested in Russia, as you become the trader?
John Bollindzher: The question journalists ask me most often. In the late 1970's I worked at the studios and was involved in the film as a cameraman. I was one of the earliest models of PC. At that time, I wondered how it can be used to adjust the picture quality. Gradually, I became increasingly enamored with computers and less and less work in the film. By 1980, I went with the head of the computer analysis.
«AC»: How do you use a balanced strip Bollindzhera? What is meant by «breakwater Market»? In what segments of the financial market, this method is applicable, and in what circumstances the use of balanced lines must be careful?
DB: Balance strip - this is sort of middle line, which, in turn, is detected by the trend. This line is not selected to ensure the best signal intersection, and turn to describe the intermediate trend. However, it should be remembered that this line should be used as a «anchor» - a reference line for all the other bands. Therefore, if the selected line, which gives the best signal intersection, it would be too short to provide a suitable anchor for the band.
Realizing that this line is a narrative in the trend, it is important to know how to better use. Initially, I used the lane and the middle line to describe the movement of stock prices in the U.S. market. I know that many traders use it, not only for market shares in other countries, but no less active - in FOREX and commodity markets. With regard to care, which should be applied to the strip of different segments of the market, then perhaps it would be inapplicable to illiquid markets and markets with low activity.
«AC»: It is well known that the algorithm Bollindzhera strip is such that 95% of the price fluctuations within the band. Is this as an opportunity to trade against the market? And what happens if the price would be outside the band?
DB: The answer is - no, and here is why: we use the strip to determine the price is relatively high or relatively low? If the price is at the upper edge of the band, one can say that it is relatively high, and if at the bottom of the band - that is, by definition, we say that the price is low. Thus, the behavior of prices compared with other indicators, and it can also affect the trend-dependent solutions. There may be situations where the price is at the upper edge of the band in a strong enough market and its movement is very strong, and therefore there is no reason to sell. In a similar situation where the price is within the upper edge of the band, but the market is weak internally, you have to keep its price within the limits of the band, it should be sold. In other words, your actions will depend on the dynamic behavior of prices within the band and must be confirmed by other indicators. I prefer the indicators of volume. It seems to me that they are very well suited for this purpose. However, I have seen, as in this situation, well a variety of indicators.
«AC»: Can I use line strips Bollindzhera as effective levels of resistance and support?
DB: Of course, this can be done. For example, the upper edge of the band will be resisted when the weak market and the lower edge of the band will be the level of support for the strong market conditions. But you must understand that the price can remain above the upper border of the band a long time, if the market strong, or a long time to be below the lower limit of the band, if the market weak. In such a situation in a sustainable ascending or descending trend wise, respectively, to sell or buy. You must show itself, when it is obvious that the situation in the weak upper band, and in doing so you are ready to act. I would like to make a small gift from America Russia. Through research for my new book, I found a curious thing that you will be very interesting. By monitoring market dynamics, I found that if the two on the twentieth and the fiftieth day match, then in such circumstances, the trend is very strong. With a strong trend you will see that the form of strips prior to the twentieth and the fiftieth day varies almost identically. This is - a reliable way to monitor the trend.
«AC»: Thank you for the gift. It is certainly of interest of our traders. Tell me please, but you can use strips Bollindzhera to check the false puncture resistance and support levels?
DB: Sure. We can recommend a way, very similar to that discussed earlier. Falsity of the puncture can be defined on the real macro-economic processes. For example, a popular method in the U.S. is to compare the average in some industries with the dynamics of indices of industrial development. If we compare the price point was higher than the upper bound of the band, with a corresponding time-economic indicator, and it is on the decline (ie, we can see that these two points are on divergent lines), it's likely there will be false samples. But if the price point above the upper band and a point on the lines of industrial development are in the ascending trend, most likely, be expected to significantly enhance the market.
«AC»: Are there any features you would with your indicator on the market FOREX?
DB: Of course, the results of my work is widely applicable in the market FOREX, but there are some differences from trading shares. For example, when the movement starts, it goes further and lasts longer than one would expect for the stock market. When working on the trends that I have given special preference should be to pay attention to the breakthrough, when the band goes down very low, and the price goes beyond its limits. We call it squeezing the prices (squeeze). It is, in particular by FOREX, often leads to big changes. In fact, not so important, what options do you use: time period, deviation factor, etc. Much more important for the trader when the narrow band starts to grow and become very broad, or the reverse process occurs. When the expansion is just beginning, this heralds a start of big changes in the market. And when the band is widened, and the process of winding down in the opposite direction, it means the end of the change.
«AC»: The next question concerns the Elliott wave theory. To what extent it describes the processes in the financial markets? Do you have this theory, and in what context?
DB: I think that Elliott wave theory in fact reflects the basic trends of processes and mechanisms in financial markets. The problem is that most of the practitioners saw it «globalism». They believe that this theory has always and everywhere true. However, I do not think that it is the key to all problems. Nevertheless, the wave theory can be very useful for operations on financial markets. I'm not sure how many others, that the theory of Elliott always works without failure. I do not even think that it is applicable in most cases. But when it works, it works quite well. In this sense, the theory resembles vzvinchivanie price: it occurs when the benefit is a series of circumstances for this growth. But it is not too often. I think that people are not too get to the heart of this theory. They are trying to apply it in all cases. However, it is acceptable only in certain situations - for example, in the early stages of development processes in the markets. So this theory, the most winning position.
«AC»: Please tell us about your future plans. Are you going to publish new books?
DB: Yes, I plan to publish two new books. One of them will be the second part to the already published a monograph «Bollindzher and strip Bollindzhera» - I have accumulated a lot of new material that I would like to add. So I'm going to combine the new material and a guide to its study. I want to describe the general rules for the functioning of financial markets. And plan to come to Moscow - I'm waiting eagerly. This will be my first visit to Russia.
«AC»: What do you expect from this trip?
DB: I just want to know a little more about modern Russia, that is happening here. When I send to travel, I always try to learn something new. I really want to see how people benefit my book. I also hope that I have interesting new ideas in the area in which I work. I would like to learn about other ways in which I might not be familiar, but which have been successfully applied to your market. Do not often see an other working conditions of the markets, or totally different perspective on the analysis.
«AC»: Tell us about your hobbies.
DB: I love surfing and music. I have a substantial collection of music, although I do not play musical instruments. I like to cook.
«AC»: What do you want to wish the readers of our journal, and all Russian traders?
DB: I would like to say this. The concept of market is different from that under which it is traditionally understood. It covers all major territories. The entire world - it is a huge financial market, and I think that traders have a great prospect for the next few years in this world. I am not saying that they would be easy, however, on all grounds, working conditions in the next few years should be good.
«Currency speculator»:Hello, Mr. Bollindzher. Our first question: readers interested in Russia, as you become the trader?
John Bollindzher: The question journalists ask me most often. In the late 1970's I worked at the studios and was involved in the film as a cameraman. I was one of the earliest models of PC. At that time, I wondered how it can be used to adjust the picture quality. Gradually, I became increasingly enamored with computers and less and less work in the film. By 1980, I went with the head of the computer analysis.
«AC»: How do you use a balanced strip Bollindzhera? What is meant by «breakwater Market»? In what segments of the financial market, this method is applicable, and in what circumstances the use of balanced lines must be careful?
DB: Balance strip - this is sort of middle line, which, in turn, is detected by the trend. This line is not selected to ensure the best signal intersection, and turn to describe the intermediate trend. However, it should be remembered that this line should be used as a «anchor» - a reference line for all the other bands. Therefore, if the selected line, which gives the best signal intersection, it would be too short to provide a suitable anchor for the band.
Realizing that this line is a narrative in the trend, it is important to know how to better use. Initially, I used the lane and the middle line to describe the movement of stock prices in the U.S. market. I know that many traders use it, not only for market shares in other countries, but no less active - in FOREX and commodity markets. With regard to care, which should be applied to the strip of different segments of the market, then perhaps it would be inapplicable to illiquid markets and markets with low activity.
«AC»: It is well known that the algorithm Bollindzhera strip is such that 95% of the price fluctuations within the band. Is this as an opportunity to trade against the market? And what happens if the price would be outside the band?
DB: The answer is - no, and here is why: we use the strip to determine the price is relatively high or relatively low? If the price is at the upper edge of the band, one can say that it is relatively high, and if at the bottom of the band - that is, by definition, we say that the price is low. Thus, the behavior of prices compared with other indicators, and it can also affect the trend-dependent solutions. There may be situations where the price is at the upper edge of the band in a strong enough market and its movement is very strong, and therefore there is no reason to sell. In a similar situation where the price is within the upper edge of the band, but the market is weak internally, you have to keep its price within the limits of the band, it should be sold. In other words, your actions will depend on the dynamic behavior of prices within the band and must be confirmed by other indicators. I prefer the indicators of volume. It seems to me that they are very well suited for this purpose. However, I have seen, as in this situation, well a variety of indicators.
«AC»: Can I use line strips Bollindzhera as effective levels of resistance and support?
DB: Of course, this can be done. For example, the upper edge of the band will be resisted when the weak market and the lower edge of the band will be the level of support for the strong market conditions. But you must understand that the price can remain above the upper border of the band a long time, if the market strong, or a long time to be below the lower limit of the band, if the market weak. In such a situation in a sustainable ascending or descending trend wise, respectively, to sell or buy. You must show itself, when it is obvious that the situation in the weak upper band, and in doing so you are ready to act. I would like to make a small gift from America Russia. Through research for my new book, I found a curious thing that you will be very interesting. By monitoring market dynamics, I found that if the two on the twentieth and the fiftieth day match, then in such circumstances, the trend is very strong. With a strong trend you will see that the form of strips prior to the twentieth and the fiftieth day varies almost identically. This is - a reliable way to monitor the trend.
«AC»: Thank you for the gift. It is certainly of interest of our traders. Tell me please, but you can use strips Bollindzhera to check the false puncture resistance and support levels?
DB: Sure. We can recommend a way, very similar to that discussed earlier. Falsity of the puncture can be defined on the real macro-economic processes. For example, a popular method in the U.S. is to compare the average in some industries with the dynamics of indices of industrial development. If we compare the price point was higher than the upper bound of the band, with a corresponding time-economic indicator, and it is on the decline (ie, we can see that these two points are on divergent lines), it's likely there will be false samples. But if the price point above the upper band and a point on the lines of industrial development are in the ascending trend, most likely, be expected to significantly enhance the market.
«AC»: Are there any features you would with your indicator on the market FOREX?
DB: Of course, the results of my work is widely applicable in the market FOREX, but there are some differences from trading shares. For example, when the movement starts, it goes further and lasts longer than one would expect for the stock market. When working on the trends that I have given special preference should be to pay attention to the breakthrough, when the band goes down very low, and the price goes beyond its limits. We call it squeezing the prices (squeeze). It is, in particular by FOREX, often leads to big changes. In fact, not so important, what options do you use: time period, deviation factor, etc. Much more important for the trader when the narrow band starts to grow and become very broad, or the reverse process occurs. When the expansion is just beginning, this heralds a start of big changes in the market. And when the band is widened, and the process of winding down in the opposite direction, it means the end of the change.
«AC»: The next question concerns the Elliott wave theory. To what extent it describes the processes in the financial markets? Do you have this theory, and in what context?
DB: I think that Elliott wave theory in fact reflects the basic trends of processes and mechanisms in financial markets. The problem is that most of the practitioners saw it «globalism». They believe that this theory has always and everywhere true. However, I do not think that it is the key to all problems. Nevertheless, the wave theory can be very useful for operations on financial markets. I'm not sure how many others, that the theory of Elliott always works without failure. I do not even think that it is applicable in most cases. But when it works, it works quite well. In this sense, the theory resembles vzvinchivanie price: it occurs when the benefit is a series of circumstances for this growth. But it is not too often. I think that people are not too get to the heart of this theory. They are trying to apply it in all cases. However, it is acceptable only in certain situations - for example, in the early stages of development processes in the markets. So this theory, the most winning position.
«AC»: Please tell us about your future plans. Are you going to publish new books?
DB: Yes, I plan to publish two new books. One of them will be the second part to the already published a monograph «Bollindzher and strip Bollindzhera» - I have accumulated a lot of new material that I would like to add. So I'm going to combine the new material and a guide to its study. I want to describe the general rules for the functioning of financial markets. And plan to come to Moscow - I'm waiting eagerly. This will be my first visit to Russia.
«AC»: What do you expect from this trip?
DB: I just want to know a little more about modern Russia, that is happening here. When I send to travel, I always try to learn something new. I really want to see how people benefit my book. I also hope that I have interesting new ideas in the area in which I work. I would like to learn about other ways in which I might not be familiar, but which have been successfully applied to your market. Do not often see an other working conditions of the markets, or totally different perspective on the analysis.
«AC»: Tell us about your hobbies.
DB: I love surfing and music. I have a substantial collection of music, although I do not play musical instruments. I like to cook.
«AC»: What do you want to wish the readers of our journal, and all Russian traders?
DB: I would like to say this. The concept of market is different from that under which it is traditionally understood. It covers all major territories. The entire world - it is a huge financial market, and I think that traders have a great prospect for the next few years in this world. I am not saying that they would be easy, however, on all grounds, working conditions in the next few years should be good.
Posted in: Interviews
