Euro / dollar is trying to develop a recovery

An initial attempt to break the euro above $ 1.3970/80 fails, but the subsequent rebound lower stimulus which, according to dealers, might have given comments Moritz Kramer, responsible for S & P for the sovereign credit ratings, has been limited. Euro / dollar then resumed its assault on specified Ofer, Ofer and now pressures near the figures, but interest in the sale here is quite strong, and currently holds a pair of approximately $ 1.3983. One British dealer said that while demand for the euro is still very good, the levels of around $ 1.4000 looks quite favorable for the resumption of sales of euro short footsteps and make the resumption of testing a key support of $ 1.38 / $ 1.37. A related point of view, however, adhere to the strategic and Royal Bank of Scotland, which also approves the sale of euro near $ 1.40, noting that the break of support at $ 1.3786 would signal the continuing reduction in the single currency in the direction of $ 1.3615 / $ 1.3444.

BBH: Be careful when buying euro / franc

At the same time as restoration of a single European currency in the pair to the dollar provides some support for the euro / franc, in the currency pair continues to be felt lack of fresh drivers for the development of bottom-up movement, and now the euro, while under moderate pressure, trading near Chf1.5030. Close support Chf1.50, which some market participants tend to treat as a red line for the SNB, remains relatively high concentration of orders for purchase, with the figures in the region, according to the news several options barriers, however, currency strategists Brown Brothers Harriman encouraged to draw attention to that the rebound is higher in recent years been increasingly limited. They note that, while previously, including last week, they prefer to buy a euro close of that support, they are now more skeptical assess the prospects of such a strategy. The bank advised to be careful when you open a long position, and note that their judgments are based not on fundamental factors and technical picture, but on the assumption that the SNB's tactics become less effective. Retailers, meanwhile, reported that below Chf1.4990, on rumors, there are large feet.

HFE is of optimistic forecasts on the U.S. currency

According to analysts of High Frequency Economics, the U.S. dollar may strengthen against most major currencies, because a rapid increase in the level of savings in the United States leads to a reduction in income in the world economy. The company have optimistic forecasts for the U.S. currency in the short as well as for the long term, in pairs with most major currencies. As the current account deficit the U.S. shortage of dollars in the world will become more apparent. In the High Frequency Economics believes that the dollar extremely good long-term prospects. Now a pair of Euro / dollar traded at around 1.3995.

RBS sees an opportunity to strengthen the yen

According to currency strategists Royal Bank of Scotland, this week, yen may strengthen to 4-month peak of 93 yen per dollar, as the growth trends in the care of the risk stimulates demand for the Japanese currency. The bank believes that higher credit spreads and the decline in the stock and commodity markets could result in an increase in the rate of departure from the risks as a result, investors will buy the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen by selling high-yield currencies. However, concern about the Fed decision on rates, which will be published tomorrow at 22:15 AM EDT, is not conducive to the strengthening of the dollar. In addition, the Fed may decide not to increase the volume of state purchases. bonds due to the fact that the growth yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is unlikely to significantly exceed 4%. At this time, a pair of dollar / yen is at a level of 95.15.

Analysts on the upcoming Fed meeting

According to analysts of Credit Suisse, the direction of movement of the U.S. dollar will depend on the Fed meeting, with the bank declined to a negative prognosis. In Credit Suisse believes that the problem of the dollar at the moment is the concern of market participants about the ability of the Fed to fight inflation, especially in conditions of maintaining the quantitative easing policy. The Fed can, to some extent, to reassure the market, but in the bank to doubt that statement will be quite strong leadership to ensure U.S. support. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believes that the growth in demand for equities and crude oil more influence on American currency than the meeting of the Fed and the ECB's operations for debt consolidation. According to bank analysts, given the assurances by the two major central banks in the world that the cheap financing to continue for some time, risky assets can regain the position. Influence the outcome of the Fed and the ECB for the euro / dollar may depend largely on how to behave risk and commodity currencies. Given this, Goldman Sachs has continued to recommend buying euro / dollar, from the level of 1.39.

Wave after wave

You can ask any analyst Elliott waves, where the market, and it certainly will give you a prediction, based on the calculation of pulse 5 and 3 corrective waves, along with a note from the current situation, like "We are in wave c of iv larger waves within the 3 big wave. " Analysts focus on the calculation of Elliott waves to predict where the market. However, the actual calculation of Elliott waves will be known only after the wave has already formed a combination that often little useful to the trader, even if the calculation is correct. As traders, we strive to find the entrance to the market, where there is a high probability that the market will go in one direction and not in another. Moreover, we try to minimize our risk, finding entry points into the model, so that the difference between our entry level and level of refuting the model was as small as possible.

Does this mean that the Elliott Wave Principle has no practical benefit to traders? Quite the contrary. Elliott Wave Principle is extremely important for traders, however, if you're using it to trade, rather than to predict future direction.

AWE-Elliott model
Often transmitted by the key component of Elliott Wave Principle is that the successive waves correspond to geometric form. Successive waves sootnosyaschiesya in geometric form, are the key to a market structure based on simple ratios of equality.

When the successive waves of attain equal (AB = reliance reliance CD), the market creates what we call AWEmodel Elliott (Alternate Wave Equality - Equality of successive waves). The practical benefit for traders is that the AWE-Elliott model is repeated continuously in highly liquid markets in all stages of the trend. Four types of AWE-Elliott model are shown in Figure 1.


Figure 1 presents the following types of AWE-Elliott model (left - right): impulsive Bull, mismatch Bull, impulsiveness bear, bear mismatch.

In AWE-market models, Elliott has already formed a point of ABC. You keep track of whether the market and when to reach the point D. If the market reaches the point D, and AWE-held model, the market develops. If the model fails, it is a sign that the market will continue to move in the direction of support CD. We use "WaveTracker" graphics package "eSignal" to automate the process of determining AWEmodeli Elliott. Each of the models in the following examples were identified in advance using the "WaveTracker".


Examples
In highly liquid markets, such as the S & P E-Mini, AWE-Elliott models are repeated with a high degree of accuracy. Figure 2 shows an example of corrective bear AWE-Elliott model for a 30-minute schedule of S & P E-Mini.

Please note that reliance AB exactly equal (to teak) in support of CD +12.00 points. This example also shows the importance of all sessions, because the point A in the AWE-model (1179.25) was recorded on Globex at 1:30 AM. Traders who pay attention only to the day's session, missed the point of this model. In Figure 2, at the time of the achievement of 1172.25, "WaveTracker" highlighted the level of 1184.25 as a potential sale, and gave us 3 hours for further analysis. Based on price action, there were several additional reasons why the 1184.25 was the point of sale. This model helps you identify such conditions, where trade has a high likelihood of success with minimal risk of 6 ticks or less.

You can use the AWE-Elliott model to place the transaction on the exact maximum of the exact minimum. Demonstrated by the fact that happened on 13 October 2004.


Figure 3 shows that the market was opened up to trade directly in the point D corrective bear AWEmodeli Elliott at 1127.25 (supports AB and CD, made up +11.50 points were equal to within 1 teak). This was the point of sale.


Figure 4 shows that the market has moved down to 17.75 points to 1109.50, forming impulsive disservice AWE-Elliott model, which supports AB and CD are exactly equal to 10.25 points. Then, you can see that the point C (1119.75) coincided with a point D in the model of Elliott AWE-less level (AB = CD item in +2.50 in teak). This was also the point of sale.

The proof is in the market
If this is your first exposure to AWE-Elliott model, you can treat with skepticism to the examples demonstrated, suggesting that this random isolated fragments. However, AWE-Elliott model, suitable for trade, there every day. The proof of this is on the market. The market is never wrong - it just is what it is, no more, no less, and when the market repeats these patterns every day, the proof is indisputable.

Is AWE-Elliott model is "the Holy Grail cup"?
So, whether AWE-Elliott model is "the Holy Grail cup"? Of course not. AWE-Elliott model simply is a key component of the market structure and market structure, in turn, is a key component of the price action in the market. AWE-Elliott model is constantly occur during the trading day. In half the cases it works, half does not. Failure AWE-Elliott model is also important to continue the movement in the direction of previous motion. The practical question for the trader is what AWE-Elliott models are candidates with a high probability to trade with low risk. The answer is connected with a full understanding of the other components of the price action, which coincide with the AWE-Elliott model. When one or two aspects of technical analysis are consistent with the AWE-Elliott model, the probability of response model significantly increased. If you are well prepared, you can place close to a deal with the stop order, which for the S & P E-Mini rarely exceed 6 ticks. If you are wrong, it will not be a serious loss for you. In the above schemes, you can estimate the ratio of return for risk.

Trading, not to predict
Elliott Wave analysts rely on the calculation of wave propagation to predict where the market. Successful traders do not foresee - they sell. Successful traders have the advantage in the markets, and they think in terms of probabilities. There is only one "Holy Holy Grail" in the trade, which is to find their advantage in the markets and learn to trade them consistently with the proper management of money. AWE-Elliott model, combined with other components of the price action, give you the advantage in the markets. The format of this article can not fully explain the other key components of the price action that can be used to combine with the AWE-Elliott models. If you can learn to think the categories of probability and consistently deal with the proper discipline in the management of money, then you are on the path towards becoming consistently profitable, and thus a successful trader.

Forex Magazine
based on www.esignaluniversity.com

New tools of technical analysis

Eyb Kofnas is president of an educational Web site for traders forex market - Learn4x.com.

Today's technical analysis is largely based on tools that were developed by the previous generation of science and mathematics. Many of them are based only on the algebra and geometry. Moving average, Exponential Moving averages, momentum indicators etc. These are standard analytical tools. Nevertheless, the availability of new tools, which use more sophisticated analytical techniques. One example is the analysis of tools for trading in the FOREX market André Duc. They are based on quantum physics and are designed to analyze the movements of the Forex market 10-second time scale up to one minute, 10-minute, hour, day, week month or more. One of the advantages of new techniques in general and of the Duke in particular is that they provide a new way to confirm or refute the traditional indicators. Let's take a look, as the analysis of the Duke works. This would require a timetable, for example, the British pound:

Figure 1

Now the traditional schedule, we transform to the following:

Figure 2

Duke contends that this transformation provides a new understanding of movements in the FOREX market. The reconfigured schedule, of course, differs from the original version. Take the 10-minute movement of GBP and smoothed price action. The so-called "quantum" line based on the quantum analysis, a common idea is that they show the direction of stability. A typical analysis of the schedule would be that the GBP has gone beyond the limits of the lines and came back, indicating that the future price action will remain top-down. A key feature of the analysis of the Duke that he could also be applied to very small time scales, like the following one minute of the schedule for the Euro:

Figure 3

(Sell signal occurs when the blue line crosses below the red)

This is certainly an interesting new approach to technical analysis, which allows slightly different look at the forex market movements.

Forex Magazine
based on www.futuresmag.com

Forms (cycles price and time)

Performance

Above presented daytime schedule "Microsoft" (MSFT). Two examples of indicator "Form" can be seen in the chart - purple and green. Parameters for option, shown in purple below.

Options

• Type of form - the kind of form that you would like to build. Selection includes ellipse, rectangle and X
• Repetition - this option is there if you would like to see your form repeated in the chart. Identical form to be duplicated by using a choice of horizontal and vertical intervals.
• Filling - if this option is marked, the form or forms to be filled by the same color as the form.
• Center coordinate - if this option is marked, the basic shape will be constructed around the center with the coordinates. If this option is not checked, it will be installed at the location of the lower left corner of the base form.
• Label - This option is valid only if the pattern repeats. If this option is checked, then each form will be marked with X, Y coordinates relative to the base form. For example, the form located on the left side of the base form will be marked with (-1, 0) while the form on the two positions above the base form will be marked (0, 2).
• Price - the price on which to build a basic form. When "The Center coordinates" checked, then the price will ask the vertical center of the base form, otherwise it will set the price lower edge of the base form.
• Date / Time - Date / time on which to build a basic form. When "The Center coordinates" checked, this setting the date / time will ask the horizontal center of the base form, otherwise it will set the option price / time of the left edge of the base form. Options
• Color - the color, style and thickness of the lines form.
• Height - the height of the form in the U.S..
• width - width in the form of bars.
• Vertical spacing - vertical spacing between repeated forms in dollars. This option applies only if the option "repetition."
• Horizontal spacing - horizontal interval between repeated forms in bars. This option applies only if the option "repetition."
• Concentric multiplitsirovanie - if this option is highlighted, the box to the right, you can determine its value. These values will be used to build additional forms with the same center, but the height and width of the base form will be multiplied by the given value. For example, a value of 2 will lead to the construction of additional forms with the same center, but twice as much height and width than the base form, while the value of 0.5 results in building a more concentric form with a half-height and width of the base form.
• Vertical step - this option allows the user to define a vertical step, which will be used when testing the indicator's "Form", using the up and down arrows on the keyboard, as described below. This vertical step will be used to regulate the height, position and the vertical interval. If the value is not specified, the program will automatically install its own step, based on the price range chart.

Description
Indicator Cycles price and time have been more appropriate name - the indicator "Forms", which was added as a separate button on the toolbar in the graphical package "Investor / RT". A separate button on the toolbar does much more than the addition of an indicator light "Forms" at the required location schedule. To do this you must first click on the button toolbar, and then the cursor will change to a pencil with a square next to it. Then we construct a rectangle on the graph around the area where you want to post the form. Once the form is located on the ground, it can be moved by moving a small point, which refers to either center or lower left corner of the form (depending on whether or not marked "Center coordinates" in the indicator). Recommended for use in indicator parameters "Form" to establish a combination of parameters to be used most often. To open the display settings to double-click on the small dot on the indicator "Form". Some people prefer a rectangle, while others may prefer a square or an ellipse. Someone wants to build a blue rectangle repeatedly, while others only a green ellipse. Once you have set your parameters, you need to make their default settings. To do this, once again, open the options window and select "Set Default". Now, every time you use the toolbar to add shape to your schedule will be raised by the default settings.

Indicator of the "Forms" is a flexible tool that allows you to build a repetitive, concentric and autonomous forms, which are cost-effective and time on the schedule. The basic form is located, based on a set of coordinates of the price and the date / time. These coordinates specify the lower left corner or center of the base form. The size of the form to specify the parameters of width and height. Height is given in dollars, while the breadth of uses bars. The basic shape can be constantly repeated throughout the schedule, because the option "repetition." Duplicate forms can be separated, both vertically and horizontally. The interval is defined by the parameters of "vertical intervals and horizontal interval. Interval 0 Condense shape in such a way that they would relate to each other. It can also be constructed in concentric multiplitsirovanie basic forms and repeated form.

To do this it should be noted option "concentric multiplitsirovanie" and to determine the multiplier that you'd like to use. As their name implies, concentric multiplitsirovannye forms have the same center as the base form. Multiplier determines how much will be increased or decreased the width of the base form.

If the display option "repetition", the basic shape will be shown a little bit brighter line than the other forms. When "The Center coordinates" is not checked, then the lower left corner of the base form will be marked by a small circle, representing the coordinates of the price and time on which the LED, otherwise center circle will be marked with the basic forms. It can be quite inconvenient to adjust the forms to the desired settings using the options window. This problem can be solved through the full control of the parameters directly from the keyboard.

Forex Magazine
based on www.linnsoft.com

Counter-trend trading strategies for Forex

As in many other markets, technical analysis has become very popular in the foreign exchange market. At the core of its popularity is huge liquidity created by the market and around-the-clock trade 1.4 trillion. $ Daily amount. A lot of participants and a significant amount of money that passes through the market every day, implies that market-based instruments, namely the currency pairs, rarely spend too much time in a narrow trading ranges and have a tendency to develop strong trends. In addition, more than 80% of the volume is speculative in nature and, as a result, the market often reaches extreme levels, and then adjusted. New trends and possible breakthroughs occur frequently, and provide multiple opportunities for the technically educated traders to enter and exit positions. Opportunities are not limited to trade on the trend, as well as quite often there are opportunities for trade in the range, allowing traders to effectively sell to the top of the grounds and bands.

In this article we wish to consider one based on the technology strategy that works particularly well in the foreign exchange market. The proposed strategy is based on the trade to intra-day trend and prednazna Chen to capture the counter-trend movement of the round values to the currency market known as "figures". This strategy involves an attempt to take advantage of the tendency of many market participants to place orders at or near the big round numbers.

The natural psychological tendency to make round numbers especially attractive to speculators, while the larger players, or a corporation that is involved in trade in the currency market for the purpose of hedging, may prefer to round numbers for the purpose of convenience of calculation. Irrespective of this, short-term counter-trend movement of round numbers occur frequently. Here are the rules for this strategy:

Long position:
• determined by the location of the currency pair that is trading significantly below its intra-day 20-periodnoy simple moving average. It may be 5 -, 10 - or 15-minute schedule.
• a long position when the currency pair is on a few points below the figure.
• hosted an initial protective stop order is not more than 15 points lower input prices.
• when the position becomes profitable on the initial risk, rose half position, while the remaining part of the position of the stop order is moved to break-even level. The freeze order is moved, as the price moves in your favor.

Short positions:
• determined by the location of the currency pair, which has traded above its intra-day 20-periodnoy simple moving average. It may be 5 -, 10 - or 15-minute schedule.
• a short position when the currency pair is on a few points above the figure.
• hosted an initial protective stop order is not more than 15 points higher input prices.
• when the position becomes profitable on the initial risk, rose half position, while the remaining part of the position of the stop order is moved to break-even level. The freeze order is moved, as the price moves in your favor.

This strategy essentially puts you on the same side, where the inter-bank players with access to the flow of orders. The strategy has a greater chance of success, when another important level of support or resistance, such as simple moving averages, Fibonacci levels, or bands Bollindzhera, converge just to the figure.

24-hour nature of the market, which is unique for currency trading, provides an additional advantage for the technical traders. Experienced traders know that at certain times of the day, some currency pairs have a higher probability of trading in a range or a high probability that the break from the intra-day consolidation. For example, the British pound tends to be traded more actively in the European and the London trading session, but kept in a narrow trading range during the Asian and U.S. sessions. Typical intra-day trading strategy for the British pound in this case should be associated with the deployment orders for a breakthrough within days of consolidation before the opening of the London session.

Transparency and the characteristics of round-the-clock trading of foreign exchange market make it particularly contributes to the trade policies based on technical analysis. Technical analysis is very popular in the foreign exchange market and is used across the spectrum of participants, from hedge funds to the intra-day traders.

Forex Magazine
based on www.esignalcentral.com