California guru

In late 2001, the magazine «Sun» has published an interview with Joe DiNapoli - one of the most popular American traders [1]. In March 2002, DiNapoli, as well as two other well-known financial guru - Borselino Lewis and Larry Williams, came to Moscow where he participated in the exhibition-conference «Internet Trading. Ekspo2002 »[2]. Many of our readers have been very happy to personally speak with «living legends» financial world, but expressed regret that not all able to talk with them. Journal «Sun» begins a series of regular publications on the world-renowned trader. The first issue to our readers are invited to an interview with John Bollindzherom.

«Currency speculator»:
Hello, Mr. Bollindzher. Our first question: readers interested in Russia, as you become the trader?

John Bollindzher: The question journalists ask me most often. In the late 1970's I worked at the studios and was involved in the film as a cameraman. I was one of the earliest models of PC. At that time, I wondered how it can be used to adjust the picture quality. Gradually, I became increasingly enamored with computers and less and less work in the film. By 1980, I went with the head of the computer analysis.

«AC»: How do you use a balanced strip Bollindzhera? What is meant by «breakwater Market»? In what segments of the financial market, this method is applicable, and in what circumstances the use of balanced lines must be careful?

DB: Balance strip - this is sort of middle line, which, in turn, is detected by the trend. This line is not selected to ensure the best signal intersection, and turn to describe the intermediate trend. However, it should be remembered that this line should be used as a «anchor» - a reference line for all the other bands. Therefore, if the selected line, which gives the best signal intersection, it would be too short to provide a suitable anchor for the band.

Realizing that this line is a narrative in the trend, it is important to know how to better use. Initially, I used the lane and the middle line to describe the movement of stock prices in the U.S. market. I know that many traders use it, not only for market shares in other countries, but no less active - in FOREX and commodity markets. With regard to care, which should be applied to the strip of different segments of the market, then perhaps it would be inapplicable to illiquid markets and markets with low activity.

«AC»: It is well known that the algorithm Bollindzhera strip is such that 95% of the price fluctuations within the band. Is this as an opportunity to trade against the market? And what happens if the price would be outside the band?

DB: The answer is - no, and here is why: we use the strip to determine the price is relatively high or relatively low? If the price is at the upper edge of the band, one can say that it is relatively high, and if at the bottom of the band - that is, by definition, we say that the price is low. Thus, the behavior of prices compared with other indicators, and it can also affect the trend-dependent solutions. There may be situations where the price is at the upper edge of the band in a strong enough market and its movement is very strong, and therefore there is no reason to sell. In a similar situation where the price is within the upper edge of the band, but the market is weak internally, you have to keep its price within the limits of the band, it should be sold. In other words, your actions will depend on the dynamic behavior of prices within the band and must be confirmed by other indicators. I prefer the indicators of volume. It seems to me that they are very well suited for this purpose. However, I have seen, as in this situation, well a variety of indicators.

«AC»: Can I use line strips Bollindzhera as effective levels of resistance and support?

DB: Of course, this can be done. For example, the upper edge of the band will be resisted when the weak market and the lower edge of the band will be the level of support for the strong market conditions. But you must understand that the price can remain above the upper border of the band a long time, if the market strong, or a long time to be below the lower limit of the band, if the market weak. In such a situation in a sustainable ascending or descending trend wise, respectively, to sell or buy. You must show itself, when it is obvious that the situation in the weak upper band, and in doing so you are ready to act. I would like to make a small gift from America Russia. Through research for my new book, I found a curious thing that you will be very interesting. By monitoring market dynamics, I found that if the two on the twentieth and the fiftieth day match, then in such circumstances, the trend is very strong. With a strong trend you will see that the form of strips prior to the twentieth and the fiftieth day varies almost identically. This is - a reliable way to monitor the trend.

«AC»: Thank you for the gift. It is certainly of interest of our traders. Tell me please, but you can use strips Bollindzhera to check the false puncture resistance and support levels?

DB: Sure. We can recommend a way, very similar to that discussed earlier. Falsity of the puncture can be defined on the real macro-economic processes. For example, a popular method in the U.S. is to compare the average in some industries with the dynamics of indices of industrial development. If we compare the price point was higher than the upper bound of the band, with a corresponding time-economic indicator, and it is on the decline (ie, we can see that these two points are on divergent lines), it's likely there will be false samples. But if the price point above the upper band and a point on the lines of industrial development are in the ascending trend, most likely, be expected to significantly enhance the market.

«AC»: Are there any features you would with your indicator on the market FOREX?

DB: Of course, the results of my work is widely applicable in the market FOREX, but there are some differences from trading shares. For example, when the movement starts, it goes further and lasts longer than one would expect for the stock market. When working on the trends that I have given special preference should be to pay attention to the breakthrough, when the band goes down very low, and the price goes beyond its limits. We call it squeezing the prices (squeeze). It is, in particular by FOREX, often leads to big changes. In fact, not so important, what options do you use: time period, deviation factor, etc. Much more important for the trader when the narrow band starts to grow and become very broad, or the reverse process occurs. When the expansion is just beginning, this heralds a start of big changes in the market. And when the band is widened, and the process of winding down in the opposite direction, it means the end of the change.

«AC»: The next question concerns the Elliott wave theory. To what extent it describes the processes in the financial markets? Do you have this theory, and in what context?

DB: I think that Elliott wave theory in fact reflects the basic trends of processes and mechanisms in financial markets. The problem is that most of the practitioners saw it «globalism». They believe that this theory has always and everywhere true. However, I do not think that it is the key to all problems. Nevertheless, the wave theory can be very useful for operations on financial markets. I'm not sure how many others, that the theory of Elliott always works without failure. I do not even think that it is applicable in most cases. But when it works, it works quite well. In this sense, the theory resembles vzvinchivanie price: it occurs when the benefit is a series of circumstances for this growth. But it is not too often. I think that people are not too get to the heart of this theory. They are trying to apply it in all cases. However, it is acceptable only in certain situations - for example, in the early stages of development processes in the markets. So this theory, the most winning position.

«AC»: Please tell us about your future plans. Are you going to publish new books?

DB: Yes, I plan to publish two new books. One of them will be the second part to the already published a monograph «Bollindzher and strip Bollindzhera» - I have accumulated a lot of new material that I would like to add. So I'm going to combine the new material and a guide to its study. I want to describe the general rules for the functioning of financial markets. And plan to come to Moscow - I'm waiting eagerly. This will be my first visit to Russia.

«AC»: What do you expect from this trip?

DB: I just want to know a little more about modern Russia, that is happening here. When I send to travel, I always try to learn something new. I really want to see how people benefit my book. I also hope that I have interesting new ideas in the area in which I work. I would like to learn about other ways in which I might not be familiar, but which have been successfully applied to your market. Do not often see an other working conditions of the markets, or totally different perspective on the analysis.

«AC»: Tell us about your hobbies.

DB: I love surfing and music. I have a substantial collection of music, although I do not play musical instruments. I like to cook.

«AC»: What do you want to wish the readers of our journal, and all Russian traders?

DB: I would like to say this. The concept of market is different from that under which it is traditionally understood. It covers all major territories. The entire world - it is a huge financial market, and I think that traders have a great prospect for the next few years in this world. I am not saying that they would be easy, however, on all grounds, working conditions in the next few years should be good.

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Success in the market life

Russian roulette and vorotily business, classical history, and financial speculation, poetry and mathematics, science and Sherlock Holmes battles - everything is on the study of friendship and enmity with Mrs. success. If your neighbor is making success on the stock exchange - he was a genius or vezunchik? «Sun» publishes interviews the author of the book «nicely left happenstance. The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life »Nassima Taleb, which he gave to the English News Agency Air Force.

When we make a mistake luck for skill, we are becoming the «accidental nicely left» - cautions mathematician and insurance risk manager Nassim Taleb. We need a book that reveals the roots are already accustomed to underestimate the accident. And in general, it is mathematically slim, attractive and informative book on common sense. It provides a wide range of readers. Students and financial officers, taxi drivers and lawyers, dentists, and philosophers - all can read this book, and through it to gain a new perspective on life.

- Mr. Nassim, you have such a rich knowledge of world markets, the resulting work in different places. It seemed to me that, according to set out in your vision, ultimately, each only benefit from good luck. Is it true that experience is not so critical?

- I have not gone so far as to say that everything is defined by success. Above all, we underestimate its role. We tend to attribute our errors at the expense of underestimating the good luck and give a much more important skill.

- Is it possible to quantify the extent to which performance is based on luck, but as far as ability, experience?

- Count it's quite hard, but I tried, and a huge number of people tried, and most of my friends also tried to evaluate it. I believe that such a calculation, and introspection, which he leads - just an attempt to determine how much depends on the case. Self-help to assess the share of luck, and this is very simple. There is the way of evaluation, and I want to outline that will help you to feel that he intuitiven. Suppose I have a million monkeys typing printers. Printing is. At the end of the experiment, which may last a long time, especially if you are not too skilled typist, you probably can find one that would have printed the Iliad. But if you have 10 billion monkeys, it is very likely that some of them will print the Iliad. However, if you have one monkey, the opportunity to print the Iliad would be very small. So if a monkey print Iliad, as you see in the original population, it can fairly accurately calculate her chances to have accidentally created this great text. The same applies to the reception of traders. If I will be 10 thousand traders as a reference group, after 5 years, surely one of them will reach a record of success. Would I not pay attention to the description of such a trader and not attributed it to high art. But if I had 5 of traders in the market, and after 5 years, one of them came to the same record the results, I would say: yes, it is likely that the role of luck in the actions of this gentleman is very small.

- People are more concerned about the fact that the games in the stock market usually cost them money. Entire areas can flourish and die, depending on events in world markets, and if a strong element of luck involved, it is likely that we would be less peaceful than it is now.

- There is a worry as well as a case not only in trading. Adventitious presence in making economic decisions and actions of similar type. For example, you read government statistics, most of which are based on any real facts. But often you are faced with playing a role of randomness, and the importance of statistics in this case is reduced. Nevertheless, a very large number of decisions based on these statistics. We, the citizens of Britain, more and more encouraged to invest in bonds that have a small portfolio of shares. Against this background, we can just be successful, similar to those who might be doing this every day for earnings and for a long time? I always thought the idea of investing in bonds is extremely suspicious. Especially suspicious arguments that accompany the proposals of the investment. I call this situation "survival bias." This is very similar to the past with the monkeys.

Let's say you are in the 1900-meters at the turn of the century, and you have ample opportunities for investment. Suppose you would have invested in securities in Argentina, the UK, the USA, Russia, France and other countries. Over time, you would have seen - since, in fact, survived only Anglo-Saxon markets. And Argentina, Russia, etc. since the early 20 th century has a lot of conflicts. Therefore, monitoring the results of the securities markets, we can say, to adjust the results of historical events. This is a story written by the victors. Investing in bonds - not a good idea.

- But you also say that the whole system, all the way, which is global capitalism, flawed?

- Not quite so. I believe that the securities market, especially since 1982, has become an opiate for the middle class. And people derive an income that is called a miracle and magic, which could create a market. They fool themselves, and at some point, thought they may have changed their views. But most likely it will be too late.

- Money drop by?

- Yes, the money drop.

- So you are saying that luck definitely plays an important role. But there is also such a thing as training projections. At least you have some of these skills?

- Definitely. The problem with the way to the press and most of the banks of the trader rather vague, as you can see, that did the trader, or do you see for the short term and exclude the results of luck. You come to the conclusion that the results were positive because they make the right moves. We seek to set aside an alternative outcome that could happen, and seeing only what has occurred. And this is a very bad way, so how can we get in trouble. In other words, if you have a random outcome is possible, You can have more than one outcome. Therefore, do not estimate selection decisions on its results, and consider taking action on their quality. What has happened over the past 15 years, bovine market, distracted us from the quality and led only to observe the results. We will be punished.

- With regard to punishment, it is interesting, as expressed in your book and your theory of those with whom you have worked in the market? Is the book part of their exposure? Generally, they want to stay in the shade?

- On the contrary. Most of them are forced to admit that very few people are successful in the sale of shares. An extremely large majority of people are failed. Traders like my book, as they hear the clink of coins. They told me: "Well, even if I am not George Soros and Warren Buffett are not, if I am not billionaire, what would I like to see my relatives and friends, this is not because I am so not competent, but mostly because of the that I neudachliv. That is why my book has attracted traders.

- But the converse assertion is that people like George Soros and Warren Buffett have been fortunate and perhaps permanently successful, and if you go back to your secondary display on the law of numbers, it becomes particularly clear. But, referring to people like Soros, we constantly ask: what, in their opinion, should happen to the world markets? We almost worshiping these people, because they think they know something that does not know the rest. But it appears, due to the fact that you say, we simply mislead.

- Yes, but my idea and the book is not that these people do not know what they are talking about. My view is that they know a little bit less than we expect.

- That is, they benefit from what might they not?

- In most cases, that they do, there is a fortune. These guys are not dentists. Dentist, I can assess, look what he did. I even can stand behind the doors of his office and ask people to open mouths to see their teeth. Since traders are not held because you are dealing with random factors. It is therefore easier to buy and sell than fire egg. So, if people only buy or sell, you can not really evaluate them as accurately as the actions of a dentist or even a violinist.

- What is interesting is that for many years, we hear about people who took their own lives, as they felt the hindmost in the market. And if we look at it from your point of view, it will come to the conclusion that people should not be about anything from their failure to take at its own expense, personally.

- Certainly. My last chapter that does not allow self to be deceived by things that are beyond your control. " You can control a lot, but that you control, you can control in principle. You should not allow their self-esteem to be broken by outside events, outside of your control.

- It is much easier said than done. Humans often consider themselves typical loser in a case that took a bad turn, even if they are not always are subject to verification.

- You're right. This dilemma was one of the heroes of the book, called "Nero", who had a rich neighbor. He knew that his neighbor, an idiot, but, nevertheless, deeply in his heart he felt holding an inferior position. And that is why experienced some satisfaction, some joy, when the neighbor lost his job and failed during the crisis of 1998. That is true. We have animals that are involved in the game of social hierarchy and clamped external circumstances. The way in which I defend themselves - the only way that I know, and it is in disregard of the news. Completely ignore the people, the results are better than mine, not uvivayas around them. Therefore, the rules of social hierarchy is not evident. You're right, it is irrational.

- Okay. But it turns out, if you look from, the news very often, as well as world events have had a strong impact on financial markets. Therefore, as you can be a trader and not to feel the pulse?

- I'm a little bit different style of work. I sell only on a narrow segment of the market and on the basis of ideas, which I am sure, totally no accident. And this is usually an advantage to people who are looking for a model where it seems to me that it might not be. So my slightly different type of trade. And so I can ignore the external events.

- So in a world where there is no certainty you feel confident?

- On the contrary, I am doing the opposite. Someone thinks that he has a certain position, but I would say that he do not. I therefore conclude that this is like a lottery. I consider only those cases where it is not right, because he did not take into account a possible error.

- Consequently, in view of what was said, you lucky man?

- I think - the average. There is a test. If you also have to live your life a thousand times, how many outcomes are radically different from the one that actually occurred? That's the conundrum. Some people were of luck and the rest of the time their success was lower. I think my life is somewhere in between. Simply because as a trader I am extremely conservative. And I really worked on a lot of introspection. And I do a lot more introspection during the trade. In my company, our meetings, we say: "Let's look at today." If you're introspective, you can protect themselves from accidents and provide a positive band. It is also likely that you will be able to reduce the effect of negative strips.

- When it comes to markets and finance, we have a lot of earnest talk about confidentiality, and assess - a very difficult task. Is there is a danger that your book has a few breaks confidentiality? Because what it is, debunk some myths. - This may dispel the secrets gurus who talk about things that do not have statistical significance, that it is easy to show, simply on the basis of these statistics - a very standard technique. But I think that my book raises self-esteem of most people who are, to some extent because it would be justified. Because they said the same thing, but nobody has drawn their attention to the words when people are passionate about bubble dot.com, high rises the market, all these things, "good", the general view (well, of course, in quotes). I think my book will give confidence to people that have been configured with skepticism and this would benefit their self-esteem.

- So, your book is "nicely left an accident" will bring hope to the hindmost?

- Certainly.

- Let's hope so.

Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I am extremely grateful to you for the interview.

- Thank you. A thousand thanks for having invited me.



Material prepared by Ivan Zakaryan

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Interview with trader: Andy Bushak

Andy Bushak always been interested in trade. He traded, while he was in Annapolis, during his service in the Navy, and when he was a halfback playing football for the "Cleveland Browns". However, Andy did not consider his career as a trader when started, yet he has not received adequate commercial "education." In the interview, Andy talks about how he was educated in the trade. He is actively traded on his own account since mid-1980's, and sometimes sold to hedge fund. Currently, he works with Tom Joseph in the "Advanced GET" and regularly conducts seminars with Michael Kvanbekom.

Question: How did you start selling, and when you became interested in this?

Andy: I am interested in the markets for a long time, and the trade was something that I always wanted to do. I started to invest, when he was in the Naval Academy in Annapolis. I had a broker and invest in options. But I would not be describing this trade. I just took, trying to find their own way. I started my career in the trade after receiving what I call my "education" when I learned more about the markets and how to sell them. I did not understand this, when I was in the navy, after the academy in Annapolis. I thought that was supposed to get an education. I had to learn for themselves about the market in more detail. I could not rely solely on your broker. I do not think the broker knew what he was doing. I think this is my money, and I have to figure out how to trade them for yourself. When I realized that was supposed to receive proper education in the trade, I started to become a "trader". This period of education lasted from 1982 to 1985. I studied Elliott Waves, read a book on technical analysis. It made sense to me, although it was somewhat unusual. I understand that many people do not believe that technical analysis has any meaning, when they begin to read about it, especially the Elliott Waves. But, it made sense to me. At the time I sold some shares and options. But then I decided that if this approach actually works Elliott waves, and I understand these patterns, why such a confusion in options? Why the market is not in motion immediately? I want to know immediately, right or wrong I am. And then I began to trade futures.

Question: What was your major subject in college?

Andy: My main subject was the operational analysis, where I learned a lot about probability and statistics. After Annapolis, when I had fulfilled its obligations to Fleet, I have replaced a lot of different jobs. One of them was the navigator guided missiles. This was exactly the same way as trade in the markets. I used the sextant to the motion of stars to find out where I am. This work also used a large amount of mathematical information. When I spend seminars Mike Kvanbekom, he calls me "navigator." I studied to find out where I am in the market. I am also quite well with numbers and pricing information, this relates to Hanna, or Fibonacci. This seems to make sense to me.

Question: How do you form your initial trading capital?

Andy: I am not earning as much when he was in the navy, but I saved a few dollars there. I had the chance to play professional football, when left the Navy after a five-year contract. At a time when I served, I maintained contact with San Diego, Dallas and Cleveland. Dallas offered me a contract, just as Cleveland, but Cleveland was my home town, so I decided to play for him. I spent a year playing halfback, but was injured, and my football career ended. I hurt the knee. Then I went to Houston and worked for "Hewlett Packard" in five years. At a time when I worked for "Hewlett Packard", I got my "education." At first I viewed the old "Financial News Network". I started to sell only the main index in each market. I traded in futures, with no real-time data. My broker said that, I went mad and sent me to a portable device to monitor prices. At that time I was building market charts manually. I looked at what graphic models arise Fibonacci levels used to determine resistance and support. I moved into sales, working for "Hewlett Packard" and built the market of graphics at the same time. And the time when it was necessary to make a choice where to make money, so I left "Hewlett Packard" and began to sell full time.

Question: How do you have to work in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: My wife and I decided to return to Cleveland, when I started trading full time. I read about the Tome Joseph (President of "Advanced GET") and Elliott waves in the journals on Futures, and I noticed that his company is close to Akron. I met with him and we chatted for several years. When my daughter was born and the house became too noisy, I had to find a place to trade. I said to him, and he offered me a seat. I sold for "Advanced GET" software. Instead, I got a place for trade and free access to the data.

Question: Are there still any advantage in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: The workshops really helped my trading. Helping students to understand the trade, I actually traded during the workshop, and it helps me look at my trade from different perspectives. It helps me to return to normal. One problem, when I sold the house, was that I was feeling a little lonely. It was sometimes difficult, especially when I went at the wrong lane. Exit from the walls and the holding of these seminars helped me to confirm his trading strategy, it returns me to the rhythm. I get the opportunity to review their trading strategies with others.

Question: How do you think you had to overcome many obstacles in his life to become a trader?

Andy: I see my life as a passage through various stages. I went from one stage to another, and I try to succeed at any stage, in which I live. I am not inclined to look back. There was a time when I was in the Naval Academy, served in the navy, engaged in professional football, worked in the "Hewlett Packard" and where I am now. This is something that I always wanted to do. This is another sphere of life and age. I try to make every effort to do so.

Question: What you have done in another way, when they started to trade?

Andy: At the time I received the first automated system. I started using "Future Source" for quotations. It was a success. Until then, I had always been to build a pre-market schedules. However, the automated system makes the graphics for me. The only inconvenience - is that the system offers too much information. There is a tendency to look at more information than you need, which makes trade a little harder than they should be. I try to - the possibility to simplify it again. When you return to it, then realize that to succeed in this business need to try to keep it all as simple as possible.

Question: Do you think students in your seminars are trying to look too much different indicators?

Andy: Yes. We try to focus them back. Mike Kvanbek and I always say our listeners seminars to keep our system simple as possible. But I think it is a normal trend - look at too much unnecessary information, especially in terms of automation, and when, first learn to trade. The key, however, is concentrated on a few elements. Once you've done the analysis, there is nothing that more should be done. You must log in to trade and manage money. It is - everything.

Question: Managing money is a major part of trade?

Andy: Absolutely. Managing money - is the most important part. The question is not how many times you were right or wrong, but how little you have lost compared to how much you've earned.

Question: What do you do specifically in this area?

Andy: First, I look at the ratio of income to risk. Basically, it is rocking and correction. If you think that trend is going to continue in the same direction, then you're hoping to buy at correction. At this point, you can assess what will be the return, when you return back to the previous maximum Fibonacci and looking to rebuild, you can estimate the risk to be limited to stop order just below the minimum. Generally, I try to look for opportunities where I can at least have a ratio of 2 to 1 or more. I feel quite well in this location. Based on the ratio of winnings to the losers, I usually gain about 50%. As soon as you join together yield-risk and wins, losers, you all have taken into account.

Question: do you assess their attitude to the loser wins in numerical terms?

Andy: Yes I am doing well, but it is not important. The key is the ratio of return to risk, and then if your trading strategy is, the ratio of winnings to the loser will work by itself.

Question: What percentage of your account, you run the risk in a transaction?

Andy: This is an interesting question. I have separate accounts, so I look in the light of all the accounts and certify that I have enough cash. I am generally very conservative. My aggressive expense is approximately 20% of my full account. I traded in this account is very aggressive. I traded it in futures, currencies, and the like.

Question: What percentage of income you receive?

Andy: It depends on how the count - from aggressive or complete. By all accounts, where I sell everything and use different strategies (for example, shares with the use of positional trade), I'm trying to achieve revenue of approximately 20% or more. Now, with regard to futures and aggressive accounts, it is much higher. I am not trying to make excess profits, I just want to get 20-25% of their income on all your accounts. This year I have a little lag. Right now I am, probably for about 15%.

Question: How do you evaluate their work and how often you do it?

Andy: I have the check list. I try to evaluate their trade often enough. I think that everyone is doing some review, whether at the end of each trading day or at the end of trading week. I watch all the transactions back to the relative gains, losses, returns to risk, etc. and look for it.

Question: Have you ever installed a dollar goal?

Andy: I tried both options. The problem is that when you set a dollar goal, like $ 1000 a day, you only stay at $ 1000. Now I try to take as much as the market can give me on a certain day. Sometimes I sell only a few times. For example, today I traded twice and made a total of approximately $ 500. I was not very aggressive today. In contrast, the other day at a seminar on trade, I made $ 5,000 during the trading day, after four or five deals with the different sizes of items. I try to just stay on the positive side. Usually I try to make at least four figures on a daily basis.

Question: Do you think the score in the dollar could increase the voltage?

Andy: Sure it is, but if I can quickly determine where my stop-order and what is my risk, it reduces stress. Once you place a stop order, it reduces your risk and the tension immediately. I just look at it and appreciate what number I want to take risks. This applies not only to the level of stop-orders, but also a certain number of contracts. I can sell three, but I can sell five and ten contracts, but if the risk is not acceptable, I will adjust the amount of my contract.

Question: What was your biggest position, winning and losing?

Andy: I remember the time when I basically traded in the currency market. It was a good market, even for intra-day trading. Then the slack period, but recently the situation has returned back to normal. I remember one day when I traded for yen. I have made approximately $ 18,000 during the trading day, that was a good trade for me. But there have been terrible days? If people tell you that they did not have bad days, they lie. I now know that the only time that you remember as a terrible day - that day when you do not put any stop order. I remember one day when I was in the market. I was in their children and do not put any stop order. I should have done a little scamper with children, and by the time I returned, I bore the loss of approximately $ 10,000. It was awful. And the reason for this was that I did not put any stop order. That was a good lesson. If you limit your losses, you will not be a problem.

Question: It was the first time in your trade? You did not know about it?

Andy: Yes, I know, but it is something that relates to the internal condition. You find yourself in such a psychological condition in some moments when even the most simple things, like the installation of stop orders that elude you. You try to auto itself. Regardless of how you want to harm yourself, you should only put the stop-order. I am currently trying to be quite rigorous in the case of stop-orders.

Question: Do you think that there is an occasion for self-destruction?

Andy: Trade alone, but not in the group, is one of the most difficult things. As the battle? This - not necessarily the market. The battle ends with a direct yourself. This is the main reason why you should have very good rules to determine the transaction input and output. We talk to our clients, "if you were trading for less than five years, you - is still a novice." After five years, traders are those starting points, where they may harm themselves. They are structured, where they clearly define the rules that protect them, even against the tendency of self-destruction. If you are going to survive as a trader, you must follow these rules.

Question: Fear and greed cause people to violate the rules?

Andy: There is greed on the one hand and fear on the other side. Rather than be greedy, you should think about the fear of greater loss, and then simply hope for a big profit. Do not feel greed for more profits.

Question: That is to focus on fear?

Andy: Yes. We need to focus on fear. You must maintain its capital. Otherwise, you will not stay in this business. We want to make money, but there is one thing that I always say at the seminars - "what makes this business totally different from other types of business - is that it is a business where you should expect to lose money. Once you figure out how to lose and keep the losses are small, you really start to make money. "

Question: Have you been a mentor to trade?

Andy: No, and I regret that I did not have it. That would make my own study of the curve is much smoother and easier. When I began to actively trade, I learned of other traders. I have been familiar traders, who were equal to me, and it helped, but I think during my initial examination of the process, it would be much better to have a mentor.

Question: You keep the trade magazine?

Andy: I had a magazine. I actually print out charts and make notes to them, and keep a folder of all my transactions and everything else. Now, given the complete automation, etc., I can not print graphics, but I really keep track of their daily transactions. I say to myself, 'OK, today I had four deals, the five transactions and so on. " I look at their winning and losing the deal and determine its profitability and its risk.

Question: Did you ever try to control their thoughts and emotions?

Andy: I did that very often. I really do not do this because I think that connects them together. I encounter the same experience many times, so I do not need to monitor their emotions on purpose, but I have little to do so. I actually had a tag, where I tried to understand their emotions. I had the rules for themselves. For example, if I had four, five or six losses in succession, I would stop and take pause. I knew that something was wrong. Now that I look at it more in terms of money. If I have a period where for some reason, I have the minus 4% per month, then I say to myself, "Perhaps I should now cease to trade, because something is not working."

Question: When some psychological factors come to the fore?

Andy: Psychological problems occur with very large positions. I traded some for a friend who drove a great foundation. We knew each other for a long time and talked every day. When he was leaving on vacation, I traded in its accounts. One day, we traded in the currency market. The biggest deal that I ever made was on the yen to $ 80 million, subject to the credit leverage, that there exists. I thought, "I have never done before, and that if I suffered a loss?". I started to become uncertain. I questioned where to place your stop-order thinking and the desire to withdraw from the position. But, I was able to commit itself to the hands and feel comfortable selling the position of this size. It boils down to the reminder that you have done all that can be done. You do your analysis. You did your homework. You entered the market, and you already know what you are going to risk it. Once you become comfortable with the level of risk, which is laid in any transaction, then half the battle won. You should evaluate your previous transactions and look back, reminding myself that it works mathematically. You can stay, but if you keep doing a good deal, it will work. We again return to the availability of good rules. If you have a good rule, it results in the order of all the other methods that you may have.

Question: How can people develop a greater tolerance for risk?

Andy: Trade - this is just like learning to ride a bike. You can have a theoretical knowledge of how to ride a bicycle, but you must sit down and really try to go on it before you can actually learn how to do it. You can visit the many seminars and read many books and articles are very well educated about the markets, but you should really take to do so. You should go on this bike. You can start to go down. But if you have the proper equipment, you will not travmiruetes. You must understand that as long as you place your stop-order, you can make money regardless of your chosen strategy. As soon as you place your stop-order and manage their risk, right from this moment on, you begin to feel better and have greater tolerance for risk. You must become comfortable with the responsibility of following the rules in your trading. You have to develop some kind of trading strategy, and to be able to decide what to do next. You must open positions and to place stop orders. Do not doubt on your analysis - just manage the money. Once you begin to carry out this paragraph, the rest goes by itself.

Question: Did you do anything to prepare themselves emotionally and psychologically every day?

Andy: There is one thing I do. This is akin to preparing for the football game. What are you doing to prepare for the football game? For an entire week, you see the game the other team. You begin to look at the trends and everything else. Then, you practice. When it is time to play, you do not have to think. All you have to do - is to respond. I do the same when preparing for the trade. I try not to think. I try to just react. I have already made a part of their homework. I look at some long-term schedules. I am doing some constructing lines Hanna. I expect some good numbers as the levels of support and resistance. I collect information on the greater picture of the market. And then on the intra-day schedule as soon as the market starts to move and start to develop a model, what should I do - is to respond. This is easy. Positional trading works exactly the same, but we have a little more time to think about it. You make deals on their day, perhaps, according to a weekly schedule, but it is the same process. You did your homework, your market is in the area of trade, and you just react. If you have some good rules, you skip a lot of emotions, which may interact with the trade. As soon as you enter into a state in which you do not think too much, just react, and emotions are under control. The only way to achieve this state is to know his subject. If you know the command, which you opposed, which means that you have done your homework in advance, and become much easier.

Q: What if your opponents are trying to deceive you? What if you make a mistake?

Andy: Yes it is. As I said - this is one of the businesses where you should expect to lose money. When you think you know what might happen, or think you see a model that should be developed in some way, then remember that not always the case. You must accept this and say, "I am wrong." You must understand that you will not win all the time.

Question: How do you think your sports training to help you?

Andy: Yes. But if you want me to give you spisokpredyduschih professions traders that succeed in the trade, then it follows that the ex-pilots are quite good traders. They are used to follow the instructions. They also rely on their equipment. Good traders follow the instructions and trust in their trading strategies. The pilot could not fully know how the plane, but he trusts his equipment, and flies in an airplane, respectively. Other people who succeed in the trade - are former military and former athletes. Former athletes, especially some of the guys that I saw in the exchange hall, when he visited the Chicago exchange, try to make trade simpler. They do not have too many rules. They keep trading simple, do a little homework, and simply react to market conditions. These guys fit to computers, just to look at the price levels in each market, and then recorded the data and went to trade more. Their actions were based on what was happening around these price levels. They just react to them. They tried to keep trade fairly straightforward.

Question: Why do you think that some traders are starting too emotsianalny?

Andy: One moment, pointed to by Mike Kvanbek on this issue - he believes that they can not be adequately capitalized. If you do not have a good financial base, it can become quite emotional. You start to lose, and start to look at your dwindling capital. With a small capital market is easy to go against you. But if you are well capitalized, and you have rules that are quite clear, this issue is resolved. This can also work the other way. When you have too much money, you need to stabilize themselves on the level when you're not worried about the number of dollars. These two extremes are the primary, where people are the most emotional: insufficient capitalization and when you go to trade on big money.

Question: I think that being a soldier, especially in Annapolis, you were a good school with regard to discipline and following rules.

Andy: Yes, you're right. I think everything that relates to my education, my military experience, and professional sports have played a positive role in my ability to trade, manage their emotions and follow the rules.

Question: What are you most like to trade?

Andy: I do not even know what to choose. I remember when I started, after the stage of education when I started trading full-time, I could not wait when the next trading day. Even on weekends, I could not wait until Monday. The point is that I like to call. This is like a sport. I am going to compete. I have a game plan that I am going to try. I begin to act. I enjoy this part of trade. Now, when I think about it, perhaps trading - a business in which I was supposed to be. I can no longer be a sportsman. This is - a business that gives me the same kind of call that I received as an athlete.

Question: Is there anything else apart from trade, which brings you such excitement?

Andy: Yes, that's sport. I'm still going out and doing sports. Before this interview, I went to scamper, mash the muscles, joints. This helps to keep my head and my emotions in good condition. It clears my brain. This allows me to feel good. If you feel good, you feel confident, you have fresh head, and you are much better.

Question: What you do not like to trade?

Andy: It can rightly demand more time, especially when you're trading with someone else or to someone's money. This may become a necessity, especially if you are trading currency and you have open positions. You may have to stand up for the night, because there is a movement in Europe or Japan.

Question: Do you believe in maintaining a good balance in your life?

Andy: Of course, there is no doubt about this. You must have balance. This is definitely.

Question: How do you support it?

Andy: I have a family and I love them. I like my job, and I must find time to do so. I must find time to manage their money, and I must sell. I also conduct workshops and preparing educational material, which I really enjoy. In those days, I feel like in tone. Before I began to conduct seminars and sold the entire time I was not well balanced. Now, I feel better. My thoughts far better organized and I feel that trade is better.

Question: What is the emotional and psychological advice would you give novice traders?

Andy: In the book "The market wizards" my favorite quote was Paul Jones saying: "Now I spend my day trying to make themselves as happy and relaxed, as far as I can. If I have positions going against me, I immediately get out if they come in my direction, I hold them. " You do not want to keep the playback position for too long, but if you have a winning position, then you try to go to them until you can. I have this quotation has been glued to the computer, when I traded full-time. I think this is important. I also remember that my broker told me many years ago. I had a bad day, and he said, "in which direction the market moves from left to right on the screen?" I said, "He is moving up." Then he said, "so why are you in the short position?" That is, if the market moves up from left to right, then you should be in a long position. If it moves downward from left to right, you should be short. So do not worry about the fundamental data. See where the market is moving, there you are, and must sell. This is how the Elliott Wave. Do you have a movement upwards and there is a correction. As soon as there is movement down, and you will always hold a stop-order to manage risk, you have everything in order. It's easy.




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