Sound Reasoning in the financial markets

Market movement is unique, each subsequent movement of prices is not like previous.

I would like to make their arguments on the financial markets and to give his assessment of forces that have a significant impact on the movement of prices in the financial market. The task that I put in front of you, above all, is to maintain sound value judgments about the risks and opportunities when working in the financial market. Each investor, who came on the market, aims to make money and not lose the opportunity to invest next time that it was well earned. The Art of stable earnings in the financial markets to become a myth for some other reality.
While the financial markets for a long period of time and analysis of scientific prominent investors, I have come to the conclusion that money, and lose, the market really, with a probability of 50 percent. Sometimes you wonder why I, a man who devoted much time studying the market, people who are constantly engaged in trade and practical analysis of movements in prices took a neutral position, not arguing that money for ryke easily and effectively, or conversely, what to do money out of money - the challenge is unreal. And all simply because I believe that everyone at heart, or in its essence is born with some talent, that is, each of us, you, I or someone else has some hidden talent, or in another capacity, which are disclosed in the course of life.
By continually over the life of the party to which a person is, he can succeed faster than others, in this, and it is expressed by the art of individuality, each of us is a creator, but it is in fact what he knows. I dare to say that if you are now reading this article, then surely you have something inside that led you to it here. Therefore, I would like to congratulate you and say that you're on the right track.
I sincerely wish that everyone who reads this article has such a talent that would enable him to earn a professional in the market and successfully carry out financial transactions. But even if you do not get it today do not feel pain and failure. Because it can always do for you more.
There is a very interesting pattern, if you're doing a very long one in any case, sooner or later you will realize that you know much more than others. Perhaps, in this hidden secret of the success of every professional - ongoing work on the case which you are interested. Why do I say this in this article, and why I'm not even talking about this topic. In life there are times when it is not feel like working on for the represented purpose, it seems now I have so many did, but no results, gradually interest in the case that you are doing, begins to disappear and then people begin to seek a new deal more interesting at the moment . The result of all this is the ability to work in many cases little, but not in the case that started. Therefore, people who love their work on the law are professionals and are getting big goals in the chosen specialization. Thus is born professionals - people love their business, people who year after year, becoming smarter and more purposeful in the chosen specialization.
I think the right to assume that you are also standing on the right track because the financial markets and all that this is linked to your professional interest. I think that in ten years if you continue to enhance the study of finance, you will very wealthy and successful among the other investors.
Having such a small logical digression, I would like to go directly to the topic for which I began this article, and in particular independent reasoning successful acquisition of capital and loss of capital at work in the market with real money. When I enter into a transaction, I make financial transactions and try to adequately talk about that work with real tools for financial or stock markets is safe, and make it as easy as simply walk into the store for shopping. When someone claims to lose a considerable amount of money in the market that make the market does not really express and confirms exactly what he had lost a considerable amount of money, if not all paying attention to real examples of other successful investors and traders . I, in turn, loan the article neutral simply sensible teacher who will show you both the positive and negative sides of the market, but to earn a losing, or giving a professional money manager - is a personal matter for each, guided by the factors I quote.
There is a very interesting statement, which reads: Rich immediately invest, then spend, while the poor just spend the remaining funds to invest. So as soon as there are rich free money, it looks for ways to invest, in order not to lose and multiply money. Invest the money could be anywhere ranging from real estate to their own bed mattress, where no one ever finds your hard earned money. If a person inexperienced in the subject of investment, it just gives money under professional management, certainly not a big percentage, but it will not be thinking about what a report on unemployment and how to publish the Americans proreagiruet to this message market, because they rotate and my money. Give the money an investor can, in principle, consider that you are done, but what happens in reality. No doubt the investor is well qualified that by law allows him to call a professional. These professionals are rarely lose money, but profits are typically obtained by these professionals, will be divided between you and the bank or investment fund. So, get your money grow if you feel like doing their business. Of course, there is a likelihood that an investor may lose some small part, but it did not happen as often as professionals always know what to do in this or any other situation.

There are people who do not trust their money to people on a number of strange set of reasons. In this case, it is possible to offer another version of a financial investment, in particular, to form their investment package. The successful formation of the package could allow to obtain large profits or lose money. The key point in this case is possession of information to investors and the proper use of this information in financial transactions. In this case, the likelihood of getting more profits increased beyond this, and the risk of loss of capital is also increasing. Many are at such risk, and then either become professionals in their case or lose money in the market and go away forever, arguing that the money market is very difficult and even impossible for some.
A typical situation is how it all began: the market has come a trader, brought hundreds of green, of course he came in the hope of earning and saving time starts. It takes some time, a trader in a hurry make mistakes, which in turn leads to a loss of capital, he starts to panic and immediately seek aftergame do not think that if the market went against the first time and stop-loss record, it is possible that no long-run trends and market consolidation. Making a few deals - no deposit, a trader disappointed hopes, and their dreams of wealth evaporate into the heavens. As a result, he begins to argue that the money market is not realistic, what is it, strictly speaking, and human, as he showed it in practice.
Now we can see several views and principles. First - where real people make money in real time. Second - when fans try to make their own money and do gradually grow up to the professionals and the third are the losers. As a conclusion of this article can be said that, at the place you put yourself and to reach. Each initially gave me a place in the world, such as the loser does not think about how to achieve success, he simply sees the causes and results, not breaking the intermediate stage of success, consistent training, he loses. Professional immediately understood that in this life is not given immediately, and small pieces, so it slowly climbs to the summit. But it will stay there for a long time and still be able to help one person get there. But an amateur and will be continually engaged in the full enjoyment by investing some amount, losing and gaining, but its purpose will be to obtain aesthetic pleasure.




President AlMaz Group Inc.
Alexander M. Mazurkevich

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Interview with trader: Andy Bushak

Andy Bushak always been interested in trade. He traded, while he was in Annapolis, during his service in the Navy, and when he was a halfback playing football for the "Cleveland Browns". However, Andy did not consider his career as a trader when started, yet he has not received adequate commercial "education." In the interview, Andy talks about how he was educated in the trade. He is actively traded on his own account since mid-1980's, and sometimes sold to hedge fund. Currently, he works with Tom Joseph in the "Advanced GET" and regularly conducts seminars with Michael Kvanbekom.

Question: How did you start selling, and when you became interested in this?

Andy: I am interested in the markets for a long time, and the trade was something that I always wanted to do. I started to invest, when he was in the Naval Academy in Annapolis. I had a broker and invest in options. But I would not be describing this trade. I just took, trying to find their own way. I started my career in the trade after receiving what I call my "education" when I learned more about the markets and how to sell them. I did not understand this, when I was in the navy, after the academy in Annapolis. I thought that was supposed to get an education. I had to learn for themselves about the market in more detail. I could not rely solely on your broker. I do not think the broker knew what he was doing. I think this is my money, and I have to figure out how to trade them for yourself. When I realized that was supposed to receive proper education in the trade, I started to become a "trader". This period of education lasted from 1982 to 1985. I studied Elliott Waves, read a book on technical analysis. It made sense to me, although it was somewhat unusual. I understand that many people do not believe that technical analysis has any meaning, when they begin to read about it, especially the Elliott Waves. But, it made sense to me. At the time I sold some shares and options. But then I decided that if this approach actually works Elliott waves, and I understand these patterns, why such a confusion in options? Why the market is not in motion immediately? I want to know immediately, right or wrong I am. And then I began to trade futures.

Question: What was your major subject in college?

Andy: My main subject was the operational analysis, where I learned a lot about probability and statistics. After Annapolis, when I had fulfilled its obligations to Fleet, I have replaced a lot of different jobs. One of them was the navigator guided missiles. This was exactly the same way as trade in the markets. I used the sextant to the motion of stars to find out where I am. This work also used a large amount of mathematical information. When I spend seminars Mike Kvanbekom, he calls me "navigator." I studied to find out where I am in the market. I am also quite well with numbers and pricing information, this relates to Hanna, or Fibonacci. This seems to make sense to me.

Question: How do you form your initial trading capital?

Andy: I am not earning as much when he was in the navy, but I saved a few dollars there. I had the chance to play professional football, when left the Navy after a five-year contract. At a time when I served, I maintained contact with San Diego, Dallas and Cleveland. Dallas offered me a contract, just as Cleveland, but Cleveland was my home town, so I decided to play for him. I spent a year playing halfback, but was injured, and my football career ended. I hurt the knee. Then I went to Houston and worked for "Hewlett Packard" in five years. At a time when I worked for "Hewlett Packard", I got my "education." At first I viewed the old "Financial News Network". I started to sell only the main index in each market. I traded in futures, with no real-time data. My broker said that, I went mad and sent me to a portable device to monitor prices. At that time I was building market charts manually. I looked at what graphic models arise Fibonacci levels used to determine resistance and support. I moved into sales, working for "Hewlett Packard" and built the market of graphics at the same time. And the time when it was necessary to make a choice where to make money, so I left "Hewlett Packard" and began to sell full time.

Question: How do you have to work in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: My wife and I decided to return to Cleveland, when I started trading full time. I read about the Tome Joseph (President of "Advanced GET") and Elliott waves in the journals on Futures, and I noticed that his company is close to Akron. I met with him and we chatted for several years. When my daughter was born and the house became too noisy, I had to find a place to trade. I said to him, and he offered me a seat. I sold for "Advanced GET" software. Instead, I got a place for trade and free access to the data.

Question: Are there still any advantage in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: The workshops really helped my trading. Helping students to understand the trade, I actually traded during the workshop, and it helps me look at my trade from different perspectives. It helps me to return to normal. One problem, when I sold the house, was that I was feeling a little lonely. It was sometimes difficult, especially when I went at the wrong lane. Exit from the walls and the holding of these seminars helped me to confirm his trading strategy, it returns me to the rhythm. I get the opportunity to review their trading strategies with others.

Question: How do you think you had to overcome many obstacles in his life to become a trader?

Andy: I see my life as a passage through various stages. I went from one stage to another, and I try to succeed at any stage, in which I live. I am not inclined to look back. There was a time when I was in the Naval Academy, served in the navy, engaged in professional football, worked in the "Hewlett Packard" and where I am now. This is something that I always wanted to do. This is another sphere of life and age. I try to make every effort to do so.

Question: What you have done in another way, when they started to trade?

Andy: At the time I received the first automated system. I started using "Future Source" for quotations. It was a success. Until then, I had always been to build a pre-market schedules. However, the automated system makes the graphics for me. The only inconvenience - is that the system offers too much information. There is a tendency to look at more information than you need, which makes trade a little harder than they should be. I try to - the possibility to simplify it again. When you return to it, then realize that to succeed in this business need to try to keep it all as simple as possible.

Question: Do you think students in your seminars are trying to look too much different indicators?

Andy: Yes. We try to focus them back. Mike Kvanbek and I always say our listeners seminars to keep our system simple as possible. But I think it is a normal trend - look at too much unnecessary information, especially in terms of automation, and when, first learn to trade. The key, however, is concentrated on a few elements. Once you've done the analysis, there is nothing that more should be done. You must log in to trade and manage money. It is - everything.

Question: Managing money is a major part of trade?

Andy: Absolutely. Managing money - is the most important part. The question is not how many times you were right or wrong, but how little you have lost compared to how much you've earned.

Question: What do you do specifically in this area?

Andy: First, I look at the ratio of income to risk. Basically, it is rocking and correction. If you think that trend is going to continue in the same direction, then you're hoping to buy at correction. At this point, you can assess what will be the return, when you return back to the previous maximum Fibonacci and looking to rebuild, you can estimate the risk to be limited to stop order just below the minimum. Generally, I try to look for opportunities where I can at least have a ratio of 2 to 1 or more. I feel quite well in this location. Based on the ratio of winnings to the losers, I usually gain about 50%. As soon as you join together yield-risk and wins, losers, you all have taken into account.

Question: do you assess their attitude to the loser wins in numerical terms?

Andy: Yes I am doing well, but it is not important. The key is the ratio of return to risk, and then if your trading strategy is, the ratio of winnings to the loser will work by itself.

Question: What percentage of your account, you run the risk in a transaction?

Andy: This is an interesting question. I have separate accounts, so I look in the light of all the accounts and certify that I have enough cash. I am generally very conservative. My aggressive expense is approximately 20% of my full account. I traded in this account is very aggressive. I traded it in futures, currencies, and the like.

Question: What percentage of income you receive?

Andy: It depends on how the count - from aggressive or complete. By all accounts, where I sell everything and use different strategies (for example, shares with the use of positional trade), I'm trying to achieve revenue of approximately 20% or more. Now, with regard to futures and aggressive accounts, it is much higher. I am not trying to make excess profits, I just want to get 20-25% of their income on all your accounts. This year I have a little lag. Right now I am, probably for about 15%.

Question: How do you evaluate their work and how often you do it?

Andy: I have the check list. I try to evaluate their trade often enough. I think that everyone is doing some review, whether at the end of each trading day or at the end of trading week. I watch all the transactions back to the relative gains, losses, returns to risk, etc. and look for it.

Question: Have you ever installed a dollar goal?

Andy: I tried both options. The problem is that when you set a dollar goal, like $ 1000 a day, you only stay at $ 1000. Now I try to take as much as the market can give me on a certain day. Sometimes I sell only a few times. For example, today I traded twice and made a total of approximately $ 500. I was not very aggressive today. In contrast, the other day at a seminar on trade, I made $ 5,000 during the trading day, after four or five deals with the different sizes of items. I try to just stay on the positive side. Usually I try to make at least four figures on a daily basis.

Question: Do you think the score in the dollar could increase the voltage?

Andy: Sure it is, but if I can quickly determine where my stop-order and what is my risk, it reduces stress. Once you place a stop order, it reduces your risk and the tension immediately. I just look at it and appreciate what number I want to take risks. This applies not only to the level of stop-orders, but also a certain number of contracts. I can sell three, but I can sell five and ten contracts, but if the risk is not acceptable, I will adjust the amount of my contract.

Question: What was your biggest position, winning and losing?

Andy: I remember the time when I basically traded in the currency market. It was a good market, even for intra-day trading. Then the slack period, but recently the situation has returned back to normal. I remember one day when I traded for yen. I have made approximately $ 18,000 during the trading day, that was a good trade for me. But there have been terrible days? If people tell you that they did not have bad days, they lie. I now know that the only time that you remember as a terrible day - that day when you do not put any stop order. I remember one day when I was in the market. I was in their children and do not put any stop order. I should have done a little scamper with children, and by the time I returned, I bore the loss of approximately $ 10,000. It was awful. And the reason for this was that I did not put any stop order. That was a good lesson. If you limit your losses, you will not be a problem.

Question: It was the first time in your trade? You did not know about it?

Andy: Yes, I know, but it is something that relates to the internal condition. You find yourself in such a psychological condition in some moments when even the most simple things, like the installation of stop orders that elude you. You try to auto itself. Regardless of how you want to harm yourself, you should only put the stop-order. I am currently trying to be quite rigorous in the case of stop-orders.

Question: Do you think that there is an occasion for self-destruction?

Andy: Trade alone, but not in the group, is one of the most difficult things. As the battle? This - not necessarily the market. The battle ends with a direct yourself. This is the main reason why you should have very good rules to determine the transaction input and output. We talk to our clients, "if you were trading for less than five years, you - is still a novice." After five years, traders are those starting points, where they may harm themselves. They are structured, where they clearly define the rules that protect them, even against the tendency of self-destruction. If you are going to survive as a trader, you must follow these rules.

Question: Fear and greed cause people to violate the rules?

Andy: There is greed on the one hand and fear on the other side. Rather than be greedy, you should think about the fear of greater loss, and then simply hope for a big profit. Do not feel greed for more profits.

Question: That is to focus on fear?

Andy: Yes. We need to focus on fear. You must maintain its capital. Otherwise, you will not stay in this business. We want to make money, but there is one thing that I always say at the seminars - "what makes this business totally different from other types of business - is that it is a business where you should expect to lose money. Once you figure out how to lose and keep the losses are small, you really start to make money. "

Question: Have you been a mentor to trade?

Andy: No, and I regret that I did not have it. That would make my own study of the curve is much smoother and easier. When I began to actively trade, I learned of other traders. I have been familiar traders, who were equal to me, and it helped, but I think during my initial examination of the process, it would be much better to have a mentor.

Question: You keep the trade magazine?

Andy: I had a magazine. I actually print out charts and make notes to them, and keep a folder of all my transactions and everything else. Now, given the complete automation, etc., I can not print graphics, but I really keep track of their daily transactions. I say to myself, 'OK, today I had four deals, the five transactions and so on. " I look at their winning and losing the deal and determine its profitability and its risk.

Question: Did you ever try to control their thoughts and emotions?

Andy: I did that very often. I really do not do this because I think that connects them together. I encounter the same experience many times, so I do not need to monitor their emotions on purpose, but I have little to do so. I actually had a tag, where I tried to understand their emotions. I had the rules for themselves. For example, if I had four, five or six losses in succession, I would stop and take pause. I knew that something was wrong. Now that I look at it more in terms of money. If I have a period where for some reason, I have the minus 4% per month, then I say to myself, "Perhaps I should now cease to trade, because something is not working."

Question: When some psychological factors come to the fore?

Andy: Psychological problems occur with very large positions. I traded some for a friend who drove a great foundation. We knew each other for a long time and talked every day. When he was leaving on vacation, I traded in its accounts. One day, we traded in the currency market. The biggest deal that I ever made was on the yen to $ 80 million, subject to the credit leverage, that there exists. I thought, "I have never done before, and that if I suffered a loss?". I started to become uncertain. I questioned where to place your stop-order thinking and the desire to withdraw from the position. But, I was able to commit itself to the hands and feel comfortable selling the position of this size. It boils down to the reminder that you have done all that can be done. You do your analysis. You did your homework. You entered the market, and you already know what you are going to risk it. Once you become comfortable with the level of risk, which is laid in any transaction, then half the battle won. You should evaluate your previous transactions and look back, reminding myself that it works mathematically. You can stay, but if you keep doing a good deal, it will work. We again return to the availability of good rules. If you have a good rule, it results in the order of all the other methods that you may have.

Question: How can people develop a greater tolerance for risk?

Andy: Trade - this is just like learning to ride a bike. You can have a theoretical knowledge of how to ride a bicycle, but you must sit down and really try to go on it before you can actually learn how to do it. You can visit the many seminars and read many books and articles are very well educated about the markets, but you should really take to do so. You should go on this bike. You can start to go down. But if you have the proper equipment, you will not travmiruetes. You must understand that as long as you place your stop-order, you can make money regardless of your chosen strategy. As soon as you place your stop-order and manage their risk, right from this moment on, you begin to feel better and have greater tolerance for risk. You must become comfortable with the responsibility of following the rules in your trading. You have to develop some kind of trading strategy, and to be able to decide what to do next. You must open positions and to place stop orders. Do not doubt on your analysis - just manage the money. Once you begin to carry out this paragraph, the rest goes by itself.

Question: Did you do anything to prepare themselves emotionally and psychologically every day?

Andy: There is one thing I do. This is akin to preparing for the football game. What are you doing to prepare for the football game? For an entire week, you see the game the other team. You begin to look at the trends and everything else. Then, you practice. When it is time to play, you do not have to think. All you have to do - is to respond. I do the same when preparing for the trade. I try not to think. I try to just react. I have already made a part of their homework. I look at some long-term schedules. I am doing some constructing lines Hanna. I expect some good numbers as the levels of support and resistance. I collect information on the greater picture of the market. And then on the intra-day schedule as soon as the market starts to move and start to develop a model, what should I do - is to respond. This is easy. Positional trading works exactly the same, but we have a little more time to think about it. You make deals on their day, perhaps, according to a weekly schedule, but it is the same process. You did your homework, your market is in the area of trade, and you just react. If you have some good rules, you skip a lot of emotions, which may interact with the trade. As soon as you enter into a state in which you do not think too much, just react, and emotions are under control. The only way to achieve this state is to know his subject. If you know the command, which you opposed, which means that you have done your homework in advance, and become much easier.

Q: What if your opponents are trying to deceive you? What if you make a mistake?

Andy: Yes it is. As I said - this is one of the businesses where you should expect to lose money. When you think you know what might happen, or think you see a model that should be developed in some way, then remember that not always the case. You must accept this and say, "I am wrong." You must understand that you will not win all the time.

Question: How do you think your sports training to help you?

Andy: Yes. But if you want me to give you spisokpredyduschih professions traders that succeed in the trade, then it follows that the ex-pilots are quite good traders. They are used to follow the instructions. They also rely on their equipment. Good traders follow the instructions and trust in their trading strategies. The pilot could not fully know how the plane, but he trusts his equipment, and flies in an airplane, respectively. Other people who succeed in the trade - are former military and former athletes. Former athletes, especially some of the guys that I saw in the exchange hall, when he visited the Chicago exchange, try to make trade simpler. They do not have too many rules. They keep trading simple, do a little homework, and simply react to market conditions. These guys fit to computers, just to look at the price levels in each market, and then recorded the data and went to trade more. Their actions were based on what was happening around these price levels. They just react to them. They tried to keep trade fairly straightforward.

Question: Why do you think that some traders are starting too emotsianalny?

Andy: One moment, pointed to by Mike Kvanbek on this issue - he believes that they can not be adequately capitalized. If you do not have a good financial base, it can become quite emotional. You start to lose, and start to look at your dwindling capital. With a small capital market is easy to go against you. But if you are well capitalized, and you have rules that are quite clear, this issue is resolved. This can also work the other way. When you have too much money, you need to stabilize themselves on the level when you're not worried about the number of dollars. These two extremes are the primary, where people are the most emotional: insufficient capitalization and when you go to trade on big money.

Question: I think that being a soldier, especially in Annapolis, you were a good school with regard to discipline and following rules.

Andy: Yes, you're right. I think everything that relates to my education, my military experience, and professional sports have played a positive role in my ability to trade, manage their emotions and follow the rules.

Question: What are you most like to trade?

Andy: I do not even know what to choose. I remember when I started, after the stage of education when I started trading full-time, I could not wait when the next trading day. Even on weekends, I could not wait until Monday. The point is that I like to call. This is like a sport. I am going to compete. I have a game plan that I am going to try. I begin to act. I enjoy this part of trade. Now, when I think about it, perhaps trading - a business in which I was supposed to be. I can no longer be a sportsman. This is - a business that gives me the same kind of call that I received as an athlete.

Question: Is there anything else apart from trade, which brings you such excitement?

Andy: Yes, that's sport. I'm still going out and doing sports. Before this interview, I went to scamper, mash the muscles, joints. This helps to keep my head and my emotions in good condition. It clears my brain. This allows me to feel good. If you feel good, you feel confident, you have fresh head, and you are much better.

Question: What you do not like to trade?

Andy: It can rightly demand more time, especially when you're trading with someone else or to someone's money. This may become a necessity, especially if you are trading currency and you have open positions. You may have to stand up for the night, because there is a movement in Europe or Japan.

Question: Do you believe in maintaining a good balance in your life?

Andy: Of course, there is no doubt about this. You must have balance. This is definitely.

Question: How do you support it?

Andy: I have a family and I love them. I like my job, and I must find time to do so. I must find time to manage their money, and I must sell. I also conduct workshops and preparing educational material, which I really enjoy. In those days, I feel like in tone. Before I began to conduct seminars and sold the entire time I was not well balanced. Now, I feel better. My thoughts far better organized and I feel that trade is better.

Question: What is the emotional and psychological advice would you give novice traders?

Andy: In the book "The market wizards" my favorite quote was Paul Jones saying: "Now I spend my day trying to make themselves as happy and relaxed, as far as I can. If I have positions going against me, I immediately get out if they come in my direction, I hold them. " You do not want to keep the playback position for too long, but if you have a winning position, then you try to go to them until you can. I have this quotation has been glued to the computer, when I traded full-time. I think this is important. I also remember that my broker told me many years ago. I had a bad day, and he said, "in which direction the market moves from left to right on the screen?" I said, "He is moving up." Then he said, "so why are you in the short position?" That is, if the market moves up from left to right, then you should be in a long position. If it moves downward from left to right, you should be short. So do not worry about the fundamental data. See where the market is moving, there you are, and must sell. This is how the Elliott Wave. Do you have a movement upwards and there is a correction. As soon as there is movement down, and you will always hold a stop-order to manage risk, you have everything in order. It's easy.




www.innerworth.com

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Cloud Of The Doubt

In this paper we consider one of the situations in which to enter the market is not recommended. I called this time «a cloud of doubt». Typically, the cloud is formed by passing the important points of resistance / support or clash of bulls and bears. Or when is not clear where to move the market. Let's try together to understand this situation and not get «elk». Let one of the few such situations. And a recent review of Perforation resistance 1.2940. I explain how I found this resistance, as many traders look for the data in different projections, etc., at a time when everyone can easily find this level, I even have to say - is required to be able to find. Well move on to the case.

Weekly schedule:














We see from the left point, the box in the red circle, it is just above the maxima will be located an emotional level of resistance to 10P smaller, more does not matter, microscopic precision is not necessary. So we found our resistance.

The second circle is our place for research. Many will say to say that for easy stories to tell and analyze the past already. Say - «show better, where will tomorrow evra?». I have an answer to this question. I say - I do not know. I always go for the price, but do not predict it, where it will be tomorrow, in five minutes, after a week or a year.

So, continue. Switching to a shorter period - for full-time schedule.

For further analysis we will use the 5 tools. SMA (21), SMA (180), Stohastic (7,10,3), Parabolic SAR and MACD Siberian standard settings.

Daily schedule:

Consider the daily schedule.

On the day seeing all the signs of a turn upward trend. MACD gave a signal to sell it proves that the mood of the crowd at the station, Stochastics also had confirmation - leave the area perekuplennosti thereby signaling the beginning of sales.

Got to two false signals from different indicators. What conclusion?

Close to such levels do not trust these indicators? - Of course not.

Parabolika, short and long, medium, showed a steady upward trend.

There was a breakthrough because even a short sliding.

Especially at this site parabolika was under the protection, ie for short-medium. And it said that the trend is protected. Why do so many traders selling at this level, for me personally - it is not clear.

I think that at this level of sales could perform only after a brief breakdown rolling and changing rate parabolika. It thus would be a confirmation signal from the indicators on early sales. This one could finish the talk, laugh, and show the finger at those who have had the imprudence to sell here. But the depth and go on. If you carefully consider the candles that surrounded by a red circle, you will find a variety of false turning combinations.

That is what I call «The big cloud of doubt». Then explain why so called it.

Four schedule


Consider now the site for 4ch and 1h schedules.

At 4ch graphics on this site has been noticed several bear MACD-divergence, any MACD-Histogram hill after a large, bear seen as a signal for the sales, Stochastics had confirmation of these signals, a total of about 3 diversification, I would like to note that srabotki enough good, profit can be caught with the right approach, well now we do not know. To explain this behavior of the crowd easily. At these sites the crowd divided into two categories: those who work on the samples, and those of a breakthrough. Bears are looking for a signal to any sale of bulls and of the signals to buy. When leaving the price for resistance, traders, playing to return to the channel, considering diversification MASD and Stochastics signal the beginning of sales, and drive the price to have the so-called support. There they are happy to meet with the bulls to perceive touch on the support price as a signal to buy - on the rebound. "

That's the beginning and the chaos of battle between the bulls and bears. This is again - "a cloud of doubt."

At the station an active mood, a lot of sales and a lot of shopping. Here every doubt, think how not to miss a turn and a more advantageous position to enter, hence the name.

So when will we enter into the market? - You ask.

There are two options.

Option 1:

You can settle with the bear diversification MACD (I noted them with red circles - this is a confirmation 4ch divergence, and more accurate input.), So you go along with the bears, who think that this is a false break. But because we dodge the crowds, and we will go in a collision with the bulls. (The points of collision with the bulls, it signals that the bulls take to buy, then we will consider)

2.Mozhete enter the tangency points of the long moving average (they are marked by green circles), is a foot lower than the resistance.

The points of collision bears and bulls, and there - "the clouds of doubt."

Time schedule:


During the symposium leave. See you soon.
Tolstykh profit and wicked moose



Author: Smagin YA aka URAN.

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